If a chemical weapon is used, Russia will almost certainly try to shift blame for the attack on the Ukrainian forces or connect it to the U.S. or NATO. Perhaps Russian forces will suggest that Ukrainians were improperly handling the weapons when they went off. Maybe Russia will claim that its forces were targeting a chemical weapons depot after obtaining intelligence of an imminent future attack on their own forces. Perhaps they will even claim that it was a NATO false flag operation. Whatever form it takes, Russia will position itself as either a victim or a reluctant party engaging in a preemptive strike. Russia will want to appear to be the good guy for its domestic audiences, even as it causes Ukrainians to suffer inhumanely cruel deaths on a mass scale. Perhaps they’ll even offer humanitarian aid and assistance, just to put salt into freshly open wounds.
A less explored idea is that Russia may want to use captured Ukrainian nuclear reactors to acquire local fissile material necessary for the construction of a dirty bomb. Assuming the radioactive material used to make the bomb is traceable, it would give off the false appearance of being of Ukrainian manufacture. Such a move would allow them to attempt to justify their previously baseless accusations, regardless of whether they would seek to use the device themselves.
But now we are getting too far ahead of ourselves. Those types of escalation would mean both that the war in Ukraine is going very badly for Russia and Putin is willing to risk further escalation with the U.S. and NATO. If the people in the Kremlin really do believe that Ukraine may give into their demands, then we can expect that Russia will hold off. How much that is true appears up in the air. Therefore, such an option is likely to remain speculative for the time being.
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