The primary season will prove to be the height of Trump’s influence in the GOP. As he has demonstrated over and again, he will claim credit for victory, even in the face of failure. The reality is that some, but not all his endorsed candidates, will win nominations. Some, but not all, will be elected in November. At best, the results for Trump will be mixed.

The period from March 2023 to July 2023 will likely seal Trump’s fate as a has-been. It’s the time when many presidential campaigns launch. During this period in 2015, more than a dozen Republican candidates, including Trump, announced their intention to seek the GOP presidential nomination.

Trump rivals such as Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Marco Rubio of Florida, and former administration officials such as former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo may wait for Trump to announce his 2024 intentions. But others such as former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan may jump in before Trump’s decision. And the entrance of Pence or DeSantis absolutely would force his hand — Trump could not ignore such legitimate contenders.