Welcome back to a drama-filled evening of runoffs! We have a whole slate of contests in Oklahoma to settle nominations in the general election, runoffs in both South Carolina and Georgia to finalize the November ballot to replace deceased members of Congress, and a referendum in Oklahoma for a cause near and dear to the hearts of ... well, nearly everyone except Democrat leaders.
Let's start with South Carolina, where polls will close first this evening anyway. Darline Graham replaced her deceased brother Lindsey in the US Senate as a temporary appointment, and then got a push from Donald Trump to run for a full term. She led a crowded field in the special primary, but Ralph Norman came on strong too. The two of them will vie for the GOP nomination and an almost certain victory in November. Our partners at Decision Desk HQ have a lengthy analysis of today's runoff, including the dueling endorsements that may or may not matter in the end.
However, the big question will be whether voters forgive Graham for her debate fumble against Norman:
Facing her runoff opponent, Rep. Ralph Norman, in a debate, the appointed senator struggled to answer a national security question that would have been right in her brother’s wheelhouse. Asked about the importance of Taiwan to U.S. interests, Graham replied that “to be honest,” she was “not that informed on national security.”
Her bungled response potentially resets the race by giving Norman an opening to hammer Graham’s political inexperience. Norman has faced the same challenge as many other U.S. House members this cycle: Primary voters are not rewarding experience in Congress’s lower chamber, stopping many attempts to win higher office. Norman himself was an example of this earlier this year, when he lost South Carolina’s primary for governor. All told, 14 of 25 members of the U.S. House have lost primaries or primary runoffs for statewide office in 2026.
But Graham’s error could shift that anti-experience dynamic to boost Norman as he takes an unexpected second swing at statewide office this year. Outside of her last name, Graham remains somewhat unfamiliar to South Carolina voters, and now this goof could define her candidacy. The stakes are certainly high: The winner will be a clear favorite heading into the general election campaign against Democrat Annie Andrews.
Now, we have not seen any public polling testing Graham against Norman in the runoff, before or after her highly publicized mistake. So, that makes it hard to know just how much this development has affected the contours of the race. But the error has increased the uncertainty surrounding the outcome. Take the prediction markets: Following the first-round vote, both Kalshi and Polymarket gave Graham close to a 9 in 10 chance of winning. But following the debate, the markets began to view Graham somewhat more skeptically, with her chances having decreased to around 7 in 10.
Trump has resolutely stood by Graham, holding a rally for her last week in Myrtle Beach, where third-place finisher Russell Fry endorsed her in his own congressional district. Norman got the endorsement of former governor and congressman Mark Sanford, who finished fourth in the initial round in this special primary process two weeks ago. Will that and Graham's gaffe be enough? Graham has far outspent Norman in this runoff, DDHQ notes, so Norman is definitely an underdog in a state where Lindsey Graham smelled the MAGA coffee about ten years ago.
Bet on Darline Graham to win tonight, but it may be close.
In the other special-election runoff, Democrats in Georgia's 13th CD will choose the nominee to fill the rest of the term of the late Rep. David Scott, who passed away in April. This is the final round for this special election, and it's between two Democrats – not a surprise in the D+21 district. Oddly, the Democrat nominee for November's election – Jasmine Clark – chose not to run for the remainder of Scott's term, nor did her main primary opponent, Emanuel Jones. Instead, this runoff will pit Scott's daughter Marcye against Everton Blair, a former Gwinnett County Board of Education chair. It's completely unclear why anyone's bothering to challenge Marcye Scott for the final four months of her father's term, but CBS News explains why Clark didn't compete for it:
Clark did not file to compete in the special election. Doing so would have required her to resign from her seat in the state Legislature just as Republican Gov. Brian Kemp was calling for a special session to redraw the state's congressional boundaries in time for the 2028 elections. The state constitution bars state officeholders from seeking a different office with a start date more than 30 days before the end of the officeholder's current term. The special session did convene, but Republican leaders opted not to take up redistricting. ...
Blair's best performance in the July 28 special election was in his home base of Gwinnett County, where he received 56% of the vote. Marcye Scott, who lives outside the district in Fulton County as her father did, carried the other five counties in the district, scoring her highest totals in DeKalb, Clayton and Henry.
Marcye Scott has to be the emotional favorite in this race tonight. Otherwise, it holds no particular weight for Republicans.
Oklahoma has a couple of interesting races on tap. First, the GOP's gubernatorial nomination is up for grabs between two candidates who finished the first round separated by fewer than 1200 votes. Current AG Gentner Drummond faces Trump-endorsed Mike Mazzei, a former state budget secretary. Put together, the two barely got 52% of the overall vote total in the first round and finished within three-tenths of a point from each other. Drummond technically won, but the question will be how much Trump's endorsement will matter to the 48% who didn't choose either of them the first time around.
DDHQ notes that the race has gotten ugly this month:
The contest took an ugly turn over the past couple of weeks amid a public spat over drug testing. Along with releasing his financial and health records, Drummond released a drug test to demonstrate that he is not on any notable medications. Drummond claimed this move was not done to suggest that Mazzei is physically unable to perform the job. Yet Mazzei did suffer a serious car accident in 2008, though he denies that he’s currently on pain medication. When Mazzei released a clean drug test, Drummond argued that it was insufficient because Mazzei had not taken a version that covers a longer window of time.
Polls indicate a dead heat. It may take a while to call a winner here.
The other contest of interest doesn't involve candidates. Question 846 would amend the state constitution to strengthen the existing voter-ID requirement by specifying what kind of ID can be used for that purpose:
This measure adds a new section 6 to article 3 of the Oklahoma Constitution to require proof of identity to vote in any election authorized by law and conducted by a county election board or the State Election Board. The measure requires proof of identity for all authorized methods of voting. The measure requires the Legislature to enact laws to specify requirements for proof of identity for voting. The measure will not have a fiscal impact.
The current law includes somewhat nebulous standards for what might suffice. This referendum would require the state legislature to specify acceptable forms of ID rather than just certain characteristics for acceptability. It's anyone's guess whether Oklahoma voters will demand this change, but if they do, expect Trump and SAVE America Act supporters to lean into it. Hard.
Follow the results tonight with our partners at Decision Desk HQ, providing live results in all primary races today!
Poll closing times:
- South Carolina: 7 PM ET
- Oklahoma: 8 PM ET
- Georgia: 7 PM ET
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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