Putin is losing in Ukraine – beware greater dangers that lie ahead

Policymakers need to understand that Putin’s risk tolerance will be higher now than it was a month ago, or even a week ago. Authoritarian dictators rarely retire peacefully. Moreover, every major Russian change of government was preceded by defeat in war. Faced with failure, Putin will likely escalate the conflict – bomb more civilians, target international aid corridors, ramp up his cyberwarfare – to regain bargaining power.

“Escalate to deescalate” is a tenet of Russia’s military doctrine that we are seeing in real time, as the death toll of women and children rises. This week, international journalists, including American citizens, were injured by Russian munitions, several tragically dying from their wounds. With Putin growing increasingly desperate, we may even expect attacks like these to be committed intentionally. No one will be safe.

But that doesn’t mean Putin gets a veto on what the U.S. can and can’t do to help Ukraine. On the contrary, it means policymakers must communicate clearly to Putin that escalating the conflict and harming Americans will only incur more severe consequences for Russia’s military and economy.