A brutal Russian victory and grinding occupation

The harsh reality is that despite their own blunders and heroic Ukrainian opposition, the Russians are winning the actual war at the moment, still taking territory and still pushing forward. At the same time, the idea that they’re going to simply pacify an entire country roused to self-defense with this army, this scale of military force, seems even more unlikely than it did before the war began. So a world of guerrilla warfare backed by the West and run by a Ukrainian government-in-exile looms in a future where Russia wins the war outright.

For American interests in the short run, that’s a situation with a lot of advantages. It keeps Moscow tied down in its own near-abroad, it keeps Europe focused on the necessity of rearmament and energy independence, and it undermines Putin’s rule slowly without the risk of a coup.

Unfortunately it also leaves most of Ukraine under Russia’s boot and keeps people fighting and dying for years if not decades. And then, too, if we end up sustaining the financial and cultural isolation we’re imposing on Russia right now, we’ll basically guarantee that the current Russia-China alignment becomes a true axis, even a Eurasian financial and economic system unto itself, with Russia as the weaker client but with Chinese power benefiting immensely.