In the 2020 election cycle, Democratic Majority for Israel fought mightily to shift some of that ground back to where it was.

But while DMFI helped its preferred candidates prevail in several races, some of its biggest bets met with disappointment. For example, the group spent more than $1 million bolstering then-Rep. Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.), the staunchly pro-Israel chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, against progressive challenger Jamaal Bowman. Bowman, who supports stricter conditions on U.S. aid to Israel, nonetheless won by a large margin in a New York City-area district with a sizable community of right-leaning, pro-Israel Jewish voters.

The outcomes of high-profile races like the Engel-Bowman contest tend to have a disproportionate impact on how other candidates perceive political risk.

That dynamic can cut both ways, however. Just as Bowman’s victory suggested that the power of DMFI and other pro-Israel groups might not be what it once was, DMFI’s splashy role in the 2021 special election to fill a solid Democratic Ohio congressional seat had the opposite effect.