I am absolutely useless when it comes to electoral prognostication. Elections are won on margins, and only in unusual circumstances based on large trends. There are numbers geeks I have known who can give you fairly precise (and good) predictions based on arcane interpretations of data that look totally opaque to me.
I once worked with a data guy who, a couple of hours after polls closed and before the majority of ballots were counted, declared that an election was going to a recount. Out of millions of votes cast, he saw that the margin was about 1000 before most were counted.
That guy is not me. My mind works in concepts, not numbers.
With that in mind, let's consider a point that has been percolating my my conceptual mind: the 2025 elections might surprise us at least a bit.
Given the political climate and polling from a couple of months ago, one would have predicted that the 2025 elections would show pretty solid vote totals for Democrats. President Trump was not on the ballot, and Democrats have certainly been fired up to punish Donald Trump. Zohran Mamdani's momentum amounted to a juggernaut, and MAGA turnout tends to be very tied to Donald Trump and less to other Republicans.
But things aren't so clear now. Democrats seems to be stumbling, and voters aren't responding as well to Democratic messaging as they would like.
New Jersey Governor Voting Plan Poll (Quantus Insights)
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 30, 2025
Election Day: (49%)
🔴 Jack Ciattarelli: 60%
🔵 Mikie Sherrill: 39%
Early In Person: (29%)
🔴 Jack Ciattarelli: 49%
🔵 Mikie Sherrill: 48%
Mail In Vote: (20%)
🔵 Mikie Sherrill: 76%
🔴 Jack Ciattarelli: 19% pic.twitter.com/mY5P9vwqIz
New Jersey would seem to be a bellwether, and that race is hardly a blowout for the Democrats, at least how things look right now. National Democrats are clearly worried that Jack Ciattarelli is outperforming their expectations in a state that occasionally elects Republicans but is still pretty reliably Democratic. Massachusetts occasionally elects Republicans for Governor, too, but it is a Democratic state, and you would expect an easy victory in a Democratic-leaning year.
I think Ciattarelli may just win, and if not, it will be much closer than initially predicted this year.
What about New York City? The conventional wisdom is that Mamdani has a lock on the race, and I would still bet on a victory for him. But Cuomo is closing in as the race reaches the finish line.
Unless there's a historically unprecedented poll miss, some Cuomo fans are living in a fantasy world when in comes to the NYC mayoral race.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 30, 2025
Mamdani has, if anything, widened his big lead since September.
Also, early voting stats are consistent with polls showing a Mamdani win. pic.twitter.com/9MXrUMItSn
Harry Enten tells me that the polls show an easy Mamdani win, and I believe him, but there is also an X factor that I suspect will boost Cuomo's numbers in the final tally: the determination of the voters who fear him.
Massive crowds of Orthodox Jews from Boro Park wait in line to vote for Cuomo.
— The Persian Jewess (@persianjewess) October 29, 2025
They’re voting like the safety of Jews in NYC depends on it.
Because it does. pic.twitter.com/s1LAry0WtC
We'll have to see how the chips fall, and it would take a miracle for Mamdani to outright lose, but I suspect the margin of victory will not be as overwhelming as people expect. With ranked choice voting, you have to wonder who the second choice is for voters, and I doubt many Cuomo or Sliwa voters will rank Mamdani second.
Virginia, too, doesn't look like the blowout that many have been predicting for months. Spanberger is bringing in all the big names to help her campaign, and late polling is showing a surge for Winsome Earl-Sears that nobody expected.
🚨IN VIRGINIA… The Polls Aren’t Telling The Full Story, The Actions Of A Panicked Democrat Party Say A Lot More
— Walter Curt (@WCdispatch_) October 30, 2025
The Democrats have tried every dirty trick in the book in Virginia to show in their anointed candidate, Abigail Spanberger.
Unfortunately for them, she looked like a… pic.twitter.com/iDxQB1MG9t
Spam has Obama, Pete Buttigieg, Jasmine Crockett, Andy Beshear, Josh Shapiro, hell they even have Bill Nye The Science Moron out there stumping for her.
Let alone the fact that they called a special session of the Virginia legislature to get Winsome Sears off the campaign trail.
Does that sound like the actions of a party that is up 10 points in the polls?
Virginia Polls Show Republicans Gaining Ahead of Election Day
— John Fredericks (@jfradioshow) October 29, 2025
Folks, these are very competitive races in Virginia for Governor, Lt. Governor, and Attorney General. We need every single voter than came out for Trump last year to get their votes in. Early voting is still going on… pic.twitter.com/tOz7aUk8OL
I wouldn't predict a Winsome Sears victory, but she almost certainly will not lose by 10+ as expected. The latest Washington Post poll shows Spanberger by 12; I wouldn't be surprised if that is cut in half or more, despite Northern Virginia Democrats being very angry at Trump right now.
Admittedly, most of my "analysis" is driven by feelings, although the data in New Jersey looks very good for Ciattarelli. What it boils down to is what appears to be a late slump hitting Democrats as they are weighed down by weak candidates and a decreasingly attractive brand.
If Sears were a stronger candidate—by this I mostly mean a more charismatic candidate—I think she would be in closer striking distance to Spanberger than she is.
Obviously, who wins is what matters to voters in those states, but for those of us looking at the tea leaves trying to make out what state results tell us about national trends, the margins are what matter. I think the margins will be better than what anybody would have predicted six weeks ago.
The government shutdown has been a bust; Democrats are harming, not helping their brand by remaining radical, and the national Democrats who are being brought into New Jersey and Virginia are not exactly lighting the voters on fire.
And, electorally speaking, a Mamdani victory will be good for Republicans in 2026.
In other words, next Tuesday may not turn out so bad for Republicans, at least in terms of their national prospects in 2026.
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Did @BillKristol ever believe anything he said he did for decades? https://t.co/02vY2PDXvX
— Philip Klein (@philipaklein) October 30, 2025
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