DOUG SOSNIK of Brunswick Group argues that “there would need to be a series of developments in order for the Democrats to defy history”:

The virus needs to be contained with the country returning to a new normal.
Inflation needs to start going down by summer.
The economy and the stock market need to maintain steady growth, particularly as interest rates begin to rise.
The supply chain needs to return to normal.
There is not a global crisis.
Biden’s job approval rating needs to be in the high 40s by summer.
Republicans need to nominate unelectable general-election candidates and run lousy campaigns. They are capable of this and have done this in recent past cycles, choosing far-right candidates such as TODD AKIN or CHRISTINE O’DONNELL who ended up losing in the general election.
Trump and Republicans need to keep talking about the 2020 election.