“I think what’s going to happen is as this thing moves across the big population states like Texas and California the s— is going to really hit the fan because there’s just not enough capacity of people, lab techs to keep these labs going,” Feldman said.

While the supply chain for once-scarce equipment like test kits and pipette tips remains intact, the sheer demand for testing is stretching sample collection sites and laboratory staff. One pharmacy industry source told POLITICO that lab staffing issues are already limiting testing capacity and turnaround times for testing done through major retail chains.

“The question is how well do they keep pace,” said Céline Gounder, an infectious disease specialist who advised the Biden transition’s Covid-19 response. “If you get to the point where — as we’ve seen in some cities — lines are hours long to get a PCR test and you go to every retail pharmacy in your neighborhood and they’re all sold out of rapid antigen tests, at some point people will give up and say it’s just trouble. It’s not worth it.”