There will be no graceful exit from the pandemic

In the second scenario -- a multi-speed world -- many countries cannot tamp down the pandemic as the rate of infection exceeds the rate of vaccination. These countries become mired in crisis, unable to rejuvenate their economies and societies in light of recurring outbreaks and intermittent lockdowns. Meanwhile, other countries that have quashed infections through mass vaccinations are successful in triggering a spirit of revitalization that energizes their national trajectories. As a result of Covid-19, about 119 to 124 million people were pushed into extreme poverty in 2020, the first rise in global poverty since 1998, according to United Nations estimates. The unequal vaccine distribution around the world could exacerbate issues of poverty and instability that could go on to fuel terrorism and organized crime. The West ignores the plight of these countries at its own peril, and China and Russia could expand their influence in the developing world through vaccine diplomacy.
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