“
Here’s how this is likely to shake out. Although Trump’s picks are unusually young, with an average age of 48, simply appointing three 48-year-olds to a single circuit would have done little good. In most circuits, that strategy would produce a single chief, during whose term the latter two would cross the age-eligibility line. In the optimal scenario, age is carefully aligned with seniority—start with a 48-year-old, followed by a 44-year-old, then a 38-year-old, which enables all three to serve as chief, producing an uninterrupted 20-year rule over their circuit.
This is the pattern we see in Trump’s appointments, with stark and sobering results. An analysis of all 574 circuit judges appointed since 1948 reveals his outsize impact. Cumulatively, Trump chiefs are slated to serve for more than 120 years, longer than the appointees of any president in the postwar period. For context, President Obama picked four chief-eligible judges in his first term, while President Bush picked eight. Trump did far better, fostering a coming wave of 18 chief judges over the next 30 years.
Take the Tenth Circuit; there, Trump picked only two judges, but they are teed up to serve in perfect succession. Both will turn 64 in the year they are on track to become chief. By contrast, none of President Obama’s five appointees to the Tenth Circuit will qualify to serve as chief, because all five will be too old when their time comes.
Join the Conversation
VIP members get the ability to comment on articles.