Why Trump's fight with Obama might backfire

According to four recent polls that asked respondents whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of a variety of politicians, Obama consistently got higher marks than Trump. In fact, of the four recent polls we could find, there wasn’t a single one in which the majority of adults had a positive view of Trump. Obama, on the other hand, had a net positive favorability rating (the favorable rating minus the unfavorable rating) in all four polls.

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This is, in large part, due to Obama’s better standing among independents. In the four polls we looked at, between 45 and 58 percent of independents said they had a favorable view of Obama, whereas only 29 to 39 percent of independents said the same of Trump. Additionally, in most of these polls, Obama enjoyed greater cross-party appeal than Trump. In that Harvard/Harris poll, for instance, 27 percent of Republicans said they had a favorable opinion of Obama compared with 14 percent of Democrats who had a favorable opinion of Trump. In that Emerson College poll, 22 percent of Republicans had a favorable opinion of Obama compared with 12 percent of Democrats who said the same of Trump. And in that Monmouth University poll, 19 percent of Republicans had a favorable opinion of Obama compared with just 5 percent of Democrats who said the same of Trump. Only in the Economist/YouGov poll was Trump’s support among Democrats about equal to — in fact, one point higher than — Obama’s support among Republicans, 15 percent to 14 percent.

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