House Republicans are still trying to figure out how to come back after their 40-seat midterm loss. A close reading of the results show they have a better chance to do that than is commonly believed.

Most of the GOP’s losses occurred in the suburbs. In 2016, suburban voters in many longtime Republican districts were split between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, and Democratic House candidates captured nearly every one of those seats last November. In 2020, Republicans would need to draw a political inside straight and win nearly every Democratic-held seat that Trump carried in 2016 to regain the majority, unless they can retake some of these districts.

But new data from elections analyst J. Miles Coleman suggests that Republicans might be better off than they think.