First, let’s take a look at two questions in the survey on which Republicans and Democrats moved further apart in 2018. In 2016, 61 percent of Republicans and 18 percent of Democrats surveyed said they agreed that “when women demand equality these days, they are actually seeking special favors” — that was a whopping 43-point gap. In 2018, that gap hit 48 points, with 65 percent of Republicans agreeing with that statement, compared with 17 percent of Democrats. And on the question of whether “women who complain about harassment often cause more problems than they solve,” 54 percent of Republicans said in 2018 that they agreed with that statement, up 4 points from 2016. Among Democrats, the change was again in the opposite direction, down to 17 percent in 2018 from 19 percent in 2016.
One explanation for the widening partisan gap could be that attitudes about gender equality are increasingly correlated with partisan identity. Indeed, several studies have found that hostile attitudes toward women predicted support for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election, along with views on racial discrimination, as some conservatives backed Trump because they feared losing their status in society. The underlying idea is that Trump’s candidacy “primed sexist attitudes, which might have otherwise lain dormant,” and, therefore, these attitudes were more salient when voters cast their ballot in 2016. And there is reason to believe that what we saw in 2016 marked a real shift between the two parties. In elections held between 2004 and 2012, attitudes toward women did not predict support for presidential candidates. So it would make sense that the Kavanaugh hearings, which took place just before the midterm elections in 2018, continued to elevate a discussion about changing cultural norms and offered an opportunity for elite partisans, like the president, to signal how they felt about issues of sexual harassment, which, in turn, may have shaped how rank-and-file Republicans and Democrats said they viewed the issue.
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