The Trump announcement, though badly handled, is the right thing to do. Arguably, the U.S. should never have deployed troops to Syria. No vital American national interest was ever at stake in the outcome. What happens in Syria is far more vital to Turkey, next door; to Russia, with its long-standing strategic presence on the country; to Iraq, seeking a more stable and less violent neighbor; to Bashir al-Assad, whose regime survival depended on military action; to the Islamic State (ISIS or IS), which hoped to establish a caliphate based in eastern Syria; and to Iran, whose influence in the region continues to grow.
U.S. troops made and continue to make almost no difference in Syria. They did not deter Turkey from intervention, nor would they deter Turkey from striking at the Kurds. The U.S. troops were inconsequential to the Russians, who had a bigger stake in a military intervention and carried it out, undeterred by Washington. U.S. forces never played a role in the outcome of the civil war, now virtually won by Bashar al-Assad with Russian and Iranian help. They played no role in deterring the Iranians from supporting Assad and extending Iranian influence. Arguably, only in arming, training and supporting the Kurds against IS did U.S. forces matter.
Leaving those forces in Syria will buy the U.S. no new influence unless the Trump administration is prepared to enter the civil war, a quagmire the U.S. has wisely avoided. The U.S. was never a major party in the war, and unless we are prepared to confront Assad or the Russians we will not be invited to any negotiating tables.
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