But I have news for the president. It’s not all about him. The competitive House contests in Florida — there are several of them — could as easily be determined by local figures and local factors.
For example, there’s a fierce battle for governor between Ron DeSantis, the Republican, and Andrew Gillum, the Democrat. What if Gillum does precisely what his party fantasizes about and turns out atypically large numbers of minority and younger voters? Once they’re at the polls for him, they’re almost sure to support whichever Democrat is running for the House in their district, and that trickle-down advantage could make all the difference.
There’s also a ferocious Senate race between the departing Republican governor, Rick Scott, and the Democratic incumbent, Bill Nelson. Scott’s heavy spending and ruthless attacks could do more than propel him to victory. They could bolster other Republicans in Florida, including House candidates in tight battles.
We tend to talk about midterm elections as barometers of the political atmosphere countrywide — and they most definitely are. But they’re also driven by geographical quirks that aren’t necessarily a part of the national pattern.