The bottom line: The signals look every bit as bad for Republicans as they did for House Democrats when they got wiped out in the 2010 Tea Party wave.

“Every metric leads you to one conclusion: The likelihood of significant Republican losses in the House and state/local level is increasing by the week,” said the Republican operative who did this statistical comparison to 2010.

“The depth of losses could be much greater than anticipated and the Senate majority might be in greater peril than anticipated.”