With all due respect to Ambassador Dermer, this is risky business. Jonathan Schanzer, the vice president for research at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies told me Tuesday before the ambassador’s remarks: “I have heard from Israelis that any sudden moves on the U.S. position on Jerusalem would potentially precipitate a third intifada, disrupt the strategic ties between Jordan and Israel and cause a break in the quiet diplomacy with Saudi Arabia.”
Dan Arbell, who served as Israel’s deputy chief of mission in Washington from 2009 to 2012, also worries about the embassy move. He told me it risked making Israel’s quiet relationships in the region more prickly. “I wouldn’t go as far as saying it will be an end to the Jordanian or Egyptian peace agreement,” he said. “But it will overshadow the increasing cooperation on the security side, and it will make it harder to come out of the closet with this cooperation, which is in Israel’s interest.”…
Part of this is because of the rise of Iran. Israel and Saudi Arabia, who were bitter enemies for the first half-century of the Jewish State’s existence, today are quiet partners in trying to check Iran’s rise. The same is true with the United Arab Emirates. With Egypt and Jordan, Israel has peace treaties, which explicitly state that the status of Jerusalem should be determined through negotiations.
Arab diplomats in recent days have told me that they worry an embassy move would stoke violent protests in their own countries.
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