Hillary's downfall

Does this wreck Hillary Clinton’s electoral prospects? It’s entirely possible that these new revelations, which are for the most part just reminders of old revelations, will remind the public why they dislike Hillary Clinton. The exodus from her side could be so great that it entirely reverses a four-to-six-point advantage in national polls, swinging at least 270 Electoral College votes to Donald Trump. That is, however, still a high hill to climb. Clinton has benefited from an enthusiasm edge following the release of a toxic candid videotape featuring Donald Trump talking about his love for sexual assault and adultery in 2005. Early voting has begun. Over 15 million votes have already been cast. In the crucial swing state of North Carolina alone, Democrats have an 18-point advantage in the early vote. The numbers for Democrats are equally promising in places like Colorado and Florida, although Republicans have an advantage in Ohio and Iowa. A uniform swing on Election Day against Clinton could overcome these numbers and deliver the election to Trump, but his razor-thin margin of error hasn’t changed. He has a needle to thread and no track record displaying the message discipline necessary for him to thread it.

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Yet this awful week of news–culminating in today’s earth-shattering disclosures from the FBI–could have a much more significant impact on the GOP’s down-ballot races, many of which were already tighter contests than the presidential race. Republican incumbents could benefit disproportionately from swing voters turning against Clinton, even if these new details do not fatally undermine her electoral prospects. If, however, Clinton survives and is inaugurated, she will face a hostile political climate like no newly elected president has faced in decades. Whereas Trump could rebrand the GOP as a progressive and xenophobic party with little appeal to the upcoming generation, Clinton could have as deleterious an effect on the Democratic Party’s brand over the course of four years of scandals, investigations, and tawdry allegations. Perhaps Democrats should be cautious about what they wish for.

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