Bush, who finished a close fourth place to Cruz despite outspending him more than 30 to 1 would seem to be, in theory damaged by New Hampshire, but more realistically, his campaign actually picked up the one thing it needed there—and that was a victory over Marco Rubio. With the Bush family’s nationwide network of supporters, he will have the resources to compete if he can perform respectably at the polls. Kasich is not realistically a long-term threat, and, with Christie is likely exiting the race, Bush is newly-relevant as a contender to win the “establishment primary”, and with it to become a leading contender for the nomination. He’ll still need to draw to an inside straight to overcome Trump and Cruz and this point, but at least he is very much in the game.

Which brings us to Rubio, who was most certainly the biggest loser in NH. With an election strategy that was predicted on a 2nd place finish to give momentum to pick up a win in SC, nd having engaged in an expensive ad war over New Hampshire airwaves, Rubio finds himself limping into SC coming off of a distant fifth place finish. Moreover, his performance in the final NH debate, and the follow-on waves of negative publicity it engendered, may have permanently tarnished his image. Nonetheless, a candidate with Rubio’s political skills simply can’t be counted out, and if he surprises in South Carolina, which he is certainly capable of doing, he could still write his 2016 story with a happier ending. But to put himself in a position to do this, he is going to need to decisively vanquish his establishment foes in SC, and he’ll have to do it with a depleted war chest and a large group of competitors. New Hampshire represented by far his best chance to clear the field, and unfortunately for Rubio, he came up short.

So to summarize where we are today: Trump has his mojo back, Cruz is positioned far better than any of his non-Trump foes, and the establishment lane of the primary is a multi-car pile-up.