In 2012, 57 percent of Iowa GOP caucusgoers were evangelical Christians, but the final Des Moines Register poll that showed Trump winning indicated that only 47 percent of 2016 caucusgoers would be evangelical Christians. “When re-weighted as a scenario test for the higher evangelical turnout seen in 2012 entrance polls, the race is closer, with 26 percent for Trump and 25 percent for Cruz,” Bloomberg reported. In fact, according to the entrance poll, evangelicals made up 64 percent of the 2016 electorate.

And that pretty much explains Cruz’s victory. He won 34 percent of evangelicals, while Trump won 22 percent and Rubio won 21 percent. Among the 36 percent of caucusgoers who aren’t evangelicals, Trump took 29 percent, Rubio took 26 percent, and Cruz took 18 percent.