Jeb Bush is seen as the strongest Republican candidate, given his name recognition, relative moderation, and powerful donor base. But it could be tough to convince anyone outside the party to vote another Bush into the White House, especially after the economy is finally showing signs of recovery. Rand Paul, so far, has said all the right things to make the base warm to him: He calls for a balanced budget every year of his prospective administration, wants to curtail government spending, is decidedly anti-bailout, and would gleefully dismantle regulation before he has a chance to take off his overcoat in the Oval Office. What’s more, Paul opposes abortion, would block welfare grants to states, and takes a dim view of marriage equality initiatives. With the waning influence of Evangelical Christians and the wholesale admonishment of neoliberalism by economists, it may be time for the GOP to cater to a fresh brand of conservatism, even if it means shifting what the base considers “conservative enough.” Savvy Republicans would do well to see Paul’s mixture of likeability and base conservative values as a Trojan horse for swing voters, a demographic which might not want to vote for the obstructionist party after two more years with a sclerotic Congress.
The Democrats have paved a clear path for Hillary Clinton. Few serious challengers exist, and those who do—such as Senator Elizabeth Warren—have indicated their deference to the Democratic heir apparent. Make no mistake, Hillary has proven herself worthy of getting the party’s endorsement: She is by far the most experienced campaigner, has a proven track record of foreign policy expertise as secretary of state, and can capitalize on the growth of feminism and gender equality that now permeates American culture. She is, however, the “establishment candidate” when compared to Rand Paul. A war-averse public may not want a president who is so closely associated with the practices of her predecessor, and worst yet, may cringe at how easily Clinton will ascend above her Democratic challengers. That she might not be in the political fight of her life, as she was in 2008, may even dampen the zeal of those who supported her back when Obama was the “outsider” candidate.
American politics is nothing else if not a spectacle machine; that there does not seem to be a major fight brewing for the Democratic nomination could take the wind from Hillary’s sails before August. And with few other signs of life within the broader electorate, the GOP might need to stop worrying about Rand and come to embrace him as their only viable shot at beating Hillary’s campaign juggernaut. After all, Americans do love an underdog.
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