Obamacare's chances of survival are looking better and better

Roberts was seen as significantly less likely to vote against maintaining the ACA than he was before oral argument. Kennedy, another swing vote, also came away seeming less likely to vote against the ACA.

JUSTICE REVERSAL CHANCE BEFORE AFTER Scalia 91% 93% Thomas 90 92 Alito 88 91 Kennedy 66 50 Roberts 53 43 Ginsburg 17 12 Sotomayor 17 12 Breyer 17 11 Kagan 16 10
Oral arguments have thrown us off the scent before, however. In the previous major ACA challenge, Verrilli’s performance before the court was panned. “He was passive,” Toobin told Politico in 2012. “He was stumbling. He was nervous. I was just shocked.” But Verrilli emerged victorious then.

Despite the shifts on King v. Burwell, the outcome is still up in the air. Josh Blackman, FantasySCOTUS’s creator, told me: “Going into arguments, I thought the case was a tossup. Leaving arguments, I still think the case is a tossup. And it looks like the players of FantasySCOTUS agree: It is a tossup.”