If Huckabee reacted harshly to Bush’s backsliding and gained in the polls as a result, it could start a chain reaction among other candidates appealing to conservatives. Walker could have to talk about gay marriage more than he’d like, or face losing votes to Huckabee or someone like him.
This could especially complicate things for Paul. The Kentucky senator’s base of younger and libertarian-leaning voters frequently support same-sex matrimony, but the evangelicals he needs to broaden his appeal generally don’t. What would he do?
That’s the best case scenario for Bush. The worst is if by staking out the most liberal position on gay marriage, he makes it easier for all the other candidates to be to his right without overcompensating on the issue. Combined with his stance on the tax hike pledge, immigration, and Common Core, Bush could find himself in Huntsman territory very quickly.
Republicans do need a gay marriage game-changer. Gay marriage is a legal reality in too many places to likely ever be reversed.
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