Jeb Bush: Frontrunner, underdog, or both?

Romney, the 2012 GOP nominee, once told me that, had Bush run in 2012, he might have skipped the race, feeling that Bush might have been a stronger candidate to take on President Obama. It’s doubtful he would have stayed out of 2012 regardless, but it speaks to his assessment then of Bush’s potential as a candidate.

Romney is still loyal to Ryan, his vice presidential nominee, is friendly with Christie and perhaps still harbors at least a sliver of thought that, if the GOP nomination contest turns into chaos sometime later next year, he might be drawn into a third campaign. He’s not likely to encourage his donors to move en masse to Bush.

In fundraising, however, Bush will have one potentially significant advantage over the many sitting governors who are looking at running. They are all affected in one way or another by what is known as the “pay to play” rule. This is a Securities and Exchange Commission regulation that prohibits financial institutions whose employees contribute to candidates from doing bond business in those states.

It has made those institutions extremely cautious about political contributions to governors. For governors such as Christie, Walker, Louisiana’s Bobby Jindal or Ohio’s John Kasich, this wipes out a potentially lucrative source of fundraising. Bush, as a former governor, isn’t affected.