The recent immigration brouhaha would seem to be another hot poker iron that Democrats will try to avoid, much as they have generally run from the Affordable Care Act, a bill every Democratic senator supported. While it is not the key issue in any of the tight Senate races, it probably is worth a point or two to Republicans in each of them, maybe more in Colorado, with its rapidly growing Hispanic population. The states on the frontlines of the border with Mexico where Central Americans are crossing — Texas, California, Arizona and New Mexico — are not states where any close statewide races seem likely to be defined by this issue this year, though in a few tight House races in Arizona and California, Democratic incumbents may get hit a bit (5 of the 17 tossup House races according to RealClearPolitics.com are Democrat-held seats in the two states).

Democrats, to some extent, are trying to hold on in the Senate, and not lose much in the House, while facing a near perfect-storm environment. Their president is regarded as having either checked out or chosen to ignore the lawn on issues he still cares about; Obamacare is under new assault in the courts and remains at about a 40% support level nationwide; the immigration debate has shifted against the party due to the latest border crossings and the president’s visible indecision about addressing the issue; and foreign policy failures are everywhere.

Administration officials seem to think that announcing a new work program for millions of illegals in the fall right before the election will galvanize a large Hispanic turnout and shift the political landscape. The “dreamers” push in 2012 helped the Obama re-election effort, but the jury is out on whether something more massive, which will get significant blowback from those arguing the step is either illegal or bypasses Congress’s role in legislating, will be a net positive for Democrats.