Indeed, talk of a Kurdish state is perhaps an index of how confusing the Middle East has become even to Middle East experts of late. When Israel says it is eager to acknowledge Kurdish independence, it is presumably referring only to the five million Kurds of the KRG. The prospect of a larger Kurdish nation, a Kurdistan comprising the tens of millions of Kurds around the region that other Kurdish entities, like the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), have fought for is very unlikely, at least right now. That’s because the two most powerful states with significant Kurdish populations—Iran and Turkey—are not going to abandon large parts of their territories for the sake of Kurdish self-determination. Indeed, Tehran and Ankara are even against a breakaway KRG state that might inflame the separatist passions of their own very large Kurdish populations.
The White House doesn’t want it to happen either. The integrity of Iraq is a fundamental principle of U.S. policy, which is why the Obama administration has repeatedly been at odds with Barzani over the KRG’s oil deals with Turkey. However, since the 2011 withdrawal of U.S. troops, the White House has very few cards to play in Iraq, or with the Kurds.
The KRG says it wouldn’t declare a state without telling Turkey first, but Ankara is opposed to the idea, saying it too wants a unified Iraq. If Barzani does push for independence, he’s gambling that the Turks will concede that, one, KRG oil deals are more valuable than KRG statehood is dangerous, and two, that Kurds are still a valuable buffer zone vis a vis Iran. In other words, Barzani has to weigh the dreams of statehood against the strategic realities of the Middle East.
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