Predictable though it was, the collapse of another French government this week was a momentous event. France is burning through prime ministers at an alarming rate: the new incumbent, Sébastien Lecornu, is the fifth in two years. Such instability is unprecedented under the current French constitution, which is predicated on strong executive authority. Some are comparing the current mess to the 1958 crisis that ended the ineffectual Fourth Republic, in which prime ministers lasted six months on average. One seasoned French analyst argued the situation is even worse now, as there is no leader like Charles de Gaulle in the offing to save the day.
How did we get here? The proximate cause was deadlock over the budget. France’s public finances are a mess: the deficit runs at 6% of GDP; public debt is 113%; interest costs exceed spending on education or defence—and are rising. On Monday, Prime Minister François Bayrou, a centrist who had been leading a minority government, called a confidence vote over plans to find savings. The far right and the left, which agree on nothing else, united to oust him—as they had done for Bayrou’s predecessor nine months earlier.
The episode points to a deeper shift that is severely testing France’s political order. Under the system set up in 1958, the president dominates and normally has a majority in the parliamentary assembly—either a conservative or a left-wing bloc. But since 2022, this bipolar dynamic has broken down. The National Assembly has been divided into three blocs (left, center right, and far right) that refuse to work with one another. As a result, every prime minister named by President Emmanuel Macron has struggled, relying on opposition divisions or constitutional mechanisms to pass laws without votes. Amid poisonous debates, meaningful reforms have been shelved as minority governments focus on mere survival—with little success. France isn’t just ungoverned; it seems ungovernable.
But why? Other countries are confronted with the rise of left-wing and right-wing radicals and yet muddle through without talk of regime change. Dire as its fiscal situation is, France still borrows on more favorable terms than Britain on international markets. Worse crises have been tackled successfully by Spain, Italy and Greece. Why is France uniquely unable to turn things around?
Join the conversation as a VIP Member