“The current situation is a reversal of the 1990s,” says Vincent Wang, a political science professor at the University of Richmond. In the past two decades, Beijing adopted an increasingly aggressive stance toward Taiwan. At the same time, it tried to grow its economy by, among other ways, reducing tensions with neighbors like Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.

“Now China’s policy is more aggressive with those neighbors, but more conciliatory toward Taiwan,” Wang says.

While the new thaw is unlikely to lead to China’s ultimate goal of gobbling up the autonomous island – a fate that, according to polls, is opposed by the vast majority of Taiwanese – Wang says China’s neighbors may have a reason to worry.

“The waters off Taiwan’s east coast are very deep,” Wang notes. Near Japan’s shores and with no major barriers all the way to Hawaii, Taiwan’s east coast could be “a very good port for China’s submarines,” he says. While no agreement for such use is currently being discussed, China may use its new ties with Taiwan to seek one, which would constitute a strategic military threat that needs to be watched carefully.