Obama's Syria gamble in Congress is even riskier than you think

Barack Obama, known previously for his caution, has decided to take an enormous risk and seek Congressional authorization for a military strike against Syria. If Obama fails to get authorization, does he then go ahead regardless? Or does he renege on his promise to enforce a “red line” on the use of chemical weapons? At risk is Obama’s presidency and the country’s ability to act in the world.

Obama has good reason to worry about gaining Congressional support. One need only look back at what happened in 1999 during the American-led war against Serbia in Kosovo. Bill Clinton, like Obama , had failed to get U.N. Security Council backing for the war because of opposition from China and Russia, but he had the firm support of NATO, and in late March, without Congressional authorization, but with tepid public support, the U.S. and NATO launched the air war that was designed to drive Serbian troops out of Kosovo. …

Is Obama likely to lose a vote in Congress? Let’s take the example of 1999. In the Senate, Obama should get his way just as Clinton did, and perhaps even more so, because he enjoys a Democratic majority. But in the House he could be in big trouble.