Republicans are holding on in rural and small-town America and among married men and women, but these are not the fast-growing parts of the electorate. The survey finds Republicans intensely opposed to gay marriage, strongly favoring pro-life groups, and incorporating opposition to dealing with global warming as part of their values. A significant number of moderates and “leaners” describe the GOP as “out of touch.”

A Washington Post/ABC Poll released Tuesday echoes Greenberg’s findings, reporting that only 21 percent of Americans identify themselves as Republicans, the lowest number since November 2009. A majority (52 percent) of Republicans think that their party is going in the wrong direction. By contrast, 72 percent of Democrats think their party is going in the right direction.

Asked if it’s possible for the GOP to elect a president in 2016 with these numbers, Greenberg said, “It would be hard.” He was then asked what a disenchanted moderate Republican should do. “If I were Jeb Bush, I would run as a moderate. I would try to lock in that 25 percent in the party–create a base. If he really did have a 25 percent base to carry through the primaries, maybe you can win the argument,” Greenberg said. “If I’m Jeb Bush or whoever will play that role, I wouldn’t try to move to the right – I would begin with that base.”