How much of the Hispanic vote is enough?

Some analysts like to claim that the GOP is unlikely to win the Hispanic vote regardless of what it does on immigration because Hispanics are not, as some have claimed, natural conservatives. They’re actually fairly liberal, relative to whites.

This is true, but it misses the point. If Republicans were actually to win the Hispanic vote outright, our question would quickly shift from whether the Republicans are going extinct to whether Democrats are going extinct.

Instead, the questions should be “What share of the Hispanic vote do the Republicans need to win in order to remain competitive with a given share of the remaining populations?” and “What do Republicans need to do in order to get there?” I suspect that to get in the neighborhood of 40 percent with Hispanics, Republicans would need a near-perfect candidate for Hispanic outreach, maybe Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, or Susana Martinez. But if 35 percent is what they need, it might be enough to have a Democratic candidate with less intrinsic appeal to young voters, and a Republican who disclaims inflammatory rhetoric to reach that goal.