As President Donald Trump's red line deadline rapidly approached zero hour - 8 pm Eastern time on Tuesday, the cacophony of online and Trump-hating cable network punditry crescendoed to fever pitch. The President goosed the intensity of the commentariat with one social media post promising a most ominous outcome barring an agreement of surrender by remnants of the military junta running the theocratic regime inside the Islamic Republic of Iran. Trump's message? If you don't make a deal that I accept by 8 pm, there will be a civilization-destroying wave of attacks by U.S. and Israeli forces, aided by Sunni Arab states fed up with the rocket and drone strikes raining down on them for the past 39 days.
As wild as Trump's message was, the response by the anti-Trump world was even wilder. Whether online influencers, elected Democrats, or media commentators, panic set in that Trump was a madman and had to be impeached today. The 25th Amendment had to be invoked right now before he nuked Iran into oblivion. Of course, neither the President, his foreign policy team, nor anyone at the White House said a thing about nuclear weapons being used. It was just assumed by the left that mushroom clouds over Tehran were a fait accompli, and only removing Trump instantly could prevent it.
As our Red State friend Bonchie tweeted very early in the day Tuesday, these same people predicting nuclear Armageddon in what was once Ancient Persia would flip on a dime once the deadline passed and nuclear weapons were not used, or if a deal was reached. Then, seamlessly, they would still criticize him and want to remove Trump for delivering the mother of all TACO's (Trump Always Chickens Out).
When Trump doesn't nuke Iran tonight, all the people screaming he's about to commit genocide will seamlessly shift to posting "Taco Tuesday" memes and claiming he chickened out.
— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) April 7, 2026
It's all a game to these people.
As the bombers were in the air, and probably within 90 minutes or less of their drop zones, after several days of Iranian regimists telling American as well as Pakistani and European negotiators and mediators, "No deal," something remarkable happened. Iran blinked. You will not see or hear that reported virtually anywhere in American media, especially on outlets that have a predisposition to be hostile to the President, which includes most of them. What you will instead be fed is a thickening of Tuesday's fog to the point it resembles a weather anomaly we Californians know too well - Tule Fog. It can get so dense in the spring in the Central Valley that 100-plus car and truck pile-ups on Interstate 5 and Highway 99 are not uncommon.
The rhetorical Jujitsu - Trump the genocidal maniac needs to be removed, to Trump the chicken who needs to be removed because he doesn't follow through (on being a genocidal maniac), are so ubiquitous on television and social media that I could fill out the balance of this column solely with examples. I'll give you one. On CNN's Iran Situation Room with Iran's Wolf Blitzer in the anchor chair, Iran global affairs analyst Kimberly Dozier had already gotten the talking points memo.
I say this is Iran's network with Iran's anchor and Iran's reporters to remind you that CNN has a camera crew inside Iran at the expressed permission and editorial control of the regime in Tehran. If you want to know what the regime thinks about things, you no longer need to translate from their propaganda in Farsi on state TV. You only need the Cable News Network.
My purpose here, though, is to help look through that fog of Trump-hating noise at the scoreboard so you can decide for yourself how to think about what is framing up as a deal, and whether or not the President made the right decision at this point.
The first thing to note is that "the deal" really is not what happened when Iran blinked. This is a ceasefire. The deal is still to come...or not. The next fortnight of the ceasefire, beginning with today, could merely be halftime, not the final score. But to analyze what took place late yesterday afternoon in the last hour of the deadline, you need to understand what Operation Epic Fury's stated objectives were. And despite reports to the contrary, these goals have been repeated dozens of times by President Trump, Vice-President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, and Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. It's not an exhaustive list. There are four.
- Destroy Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal and production capacity - This is the first and primary objective. U.S. officials emphasize eliminating existing missiles, launch sites, storage facilities, and the industrial base capable of producing new ones.
- Annihilate the Iranian Navy - The U.S. aims to remove Iran’s ability to threaten shipping, close the Strait of Hormuz, or project maritime power. This includes destroying ships, submarines, anti‑ship missile sites, and naval command centers.
- Sever Iran’s support for terrorist proxies - The campaign seeks to cripple the IRGC’s ability to fund, arm, or direct proxy militias across the Middle East, including Hezbollah, the Houthis, and other aligned groups.
- Ensure Iran can never obtain a nuclear weapon - This long‑term objective underpins the entire operation. Officials repeatedly state that preventing nuclear capability—by destroying nuclear‑related infrastructure and the missile forces that could protect it—is non‑negotiable.
If you add in Israeli goals, they would include regime change in Iran, which they believe would cut the lifeline to the terror proxies all around them, and then the destruction of those proxies to prevent them from threatening Israel ever again.
The Iranians? They really didn't have too many goals. Their primary mission was not to defeat the United States or Israel, but to survive the conflict. Secondary to that was to hit their Sunni Arab neighbors in the false belief that they would turn against the Americans and Israelis. Third, use the progressive American left, media, and elected officials as the useful idiots they are to sow discontent for the war effort inside the United States. Lastly, their aim was to draw their allies in Russia and China into the conflict in order to upend the U.S.-led world order and force global chaos, and ultimately, World War III to uncork the well housing their Hidden Imam so he could come do something with himself and the rest of the Shia world.
Over a week ago, the President floated a 15-point proposal to the Iranian regime that hadn't been killed off. This was what was on his list.
The U.S. 14 point framework presented to Iran:
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 24, 2026
• Full dismantlement of accumulated nuclear capabilities
• Binding commitment never to pursue nuclear weapons
• Zero enrichment permitted on Iranian soil
• All enriched material transferred to the IAEA on an accelerated…
After initially blowing it off, Iran eventually came around to a 10-point plan of their own.
BREAKING: Iran says it has "forced" the US to accept its "10-point plan" which includes the following terms:
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 7, 2026
1. Commitment to non-aggression
2. Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz
3. Acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment
4. Lifting of all primary sanctions
5. Lifting of…
World's apart, right? Yes. So what was agreed to right before the lights went out in Iran? A two-week ceasefire to haggle out the terms of surrender. The wording in the announcements by both President Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, yes, the Baghdad Bob of Tehran, is very precise. Instead of allowing pundits who have no idea what has been agreed to between the two sides in secret offer analysis imbued by their priors about Trump, read what was agreed to.
First, Donald Trump called off the airstrikes.
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 7, 2026
Several takeaways from this.
1. Trump accepts the 10-point Iranian plan, inasmuch as it's a starting point for negotiations, but he doesn't agree to any of them. In fact, he has said since his 10-day grace period began that the people in the regime with which he was negotiating had already agreed to most of Trump's demands, meaning handing over highly-enriched uranium, cutting off funding and support to the proxies, and leaving the Strait of Hormuz alone. The rest of the goals of Operation Epic Fury have been taken care of by the United States and Israeli armed forces.
2. The American military is going nowhere. The proverbial gun is still cocked. Instead of the finger resting on the trigger, it's now resting on the guard. The Strait has to be wide open to all traffic immediately, safely, and completely. Nowhere in that messaging is the carve-out for the Ayatollah William J. LePetomane Thruway on Larak Island collecting $2 million dollar tolls on tankers and freighters traversing the Strait. Completely and safely means just that - waving at the ships as they make the U-turn in front of you.
3. Something changed radically in the final hours of the deadline, because the terms of the ceasefire really had not changed from the terms Trump had given several days ago. The difference now? Xi Jinping in China. Once the United States had proven that their special operators could pull off the rescue mission over the weekend they did with no casualties other than equipment, followed up by Trump blowing up any defenses on Kharg Island, the CCP put two and two together pretty quickly that a final blow to the regime would almost certainly include commandeering the oil dock in the Gulf, boxing out energy supplies China desperately needs to keep flowing in order to keep their own economy from collapsing. The President believes, and the Associated Press has reported, that China leaned substantially on Iran to accept the deal immediately.
As per @AP, China entered last minute mediation efforts led by Pakistan to push Iran towards accepting a ceasefire arrangement. Few hours ago China (with Russia) had veto'd a UN resolution on Hormuz tabled by Bahrain. pic.twitter.com/CIuQRKCaJ9
— Kabir Taneja (@KabirTaneja) April 8, 2026
China never liked it when the Strait was threatened during the course of this 39-day operation, and they certainly were going to like it a whole lot less when the U.S. eventually controlled the flow of Iranian oil entirely. Trump's demand was safe, immediate, and complete freedom of passage through the Strait. China apparently concurs. What did Araghchi say?
Statement on behalf of the Supreme National Security Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran: pic.twitter.com/cEtBNCLnWT
— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) April 7, 2026
Again, don't fall for the noise on Trump-hating media outlets like CNN or fools online who have been wrong about everything to do with Operation Epic Fury. CNN reported breathlessly that Trump had accepted Iran's 10 points, when in fact what they were perhaps inadvertently doing was serving as propaganda the regime could use on their own citizenry to show they were still in charge, and would remain so once the bombing stopped. The thing that terrifies the regime almost as much as the lights going out is the Iranian masses knowing the regime has totally lost control and takes to the streets again, this time with the odds more favorable to them.
Araghchi's statement is just as carefully worded as Trump's in that he publicly says one thing while hopefully being interpreted back home as still representing a functional regime that is getting the better end of things when the dust settles. But here are the takeaways from Araghchi's statement.
1. Araghchi personally rejected out of hand the exact same 15-point plan offered by Trump 10 days ago. Now, upon further review, he's pleased to accept the outline as a framework for negotiations - negotiations which have already been ongoing. It appears that Araghchi was in the camp of the reasonable third-tier leaders after all.
2. If attacks on Iran are stopped, which they have been, then Iran will discontinue their "defensive" operations. Due to the mosaic nature of IRGC remnants given autonomy to fire off missiles or drones once the regime was decapitated, it's going to take a little bit for the message to get to the right places. Rockets have continued to stream at Israel since the ceasefire was agreed to, but those should end very soon. If not, there is no ceasefire, and the bomber birds of prey simply gas up and take wing once again.
Cardboard Mojtaba Khamenei, the purported Supreme Leader who is either still dead or sings "Clang, Clang, Clang Went The Trolley" in the shower, even got into the act to order a stand down. Or more likely, obviously, someone in the regime wrote the missive on his behalf. Or if the amputation rumors are true, his bethree-quarters.
Iran’s supreme leader instructed all military units to stop firing, according to a statement read on state-run IRIB about two hours after President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire deal, CNN reported on Tuesday.
— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) April 8, 2026
“This is not the end of the war but all military branches should…
3. Notice the very careful wording about the Strait. For the next two weeks, safe passage will be possible with the coordination of Iran's Armed Forces. First, they don't have many armed forces left. Second, he didn't say their navy, because that no longer exists. Third, there's nothing in here about charging a toll. That's not part of the deal. Then the key phrase - "And with due consideration to technical limitations." The anti-Trump fever swamp reads into due consideration as charging tolls on ships passing. Due consideration to technical limitations more likely means command and control limitations. Araghchi seems to be hedging his bet, saying the Strait is open, but it might take a bit of time to convince the Khuzestan Cops remaining on station to quit shooting at the ships.
4. Despite reporting to the contrary, while Israel has agreed to the ceasefire of hostilities in Iran, nothing in either Trump's statement or Araghchi's statement says anything about Israel stopping raids against Hamas, Hezbollah, or any other proxies that threaten them. It's possible the President asked Prime Minister Netanyahu to tone it down for a few days while talks are ongoing, but nothing publicly shows Israel has to put up with Hezbollah rockets continuing to launch in their direction.
So who will do the final negotiating? Vice-President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Who will head up Iran's team? Looks like we now know who Trump was talking to after all.
Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf will lead Tehran’s delegation in talks with the United States on Friday, the semi-official ISNA news agency reported on Wednesday.
— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) April 8, 2026
The agency said US Vice President JD Vance would head the American side.
Iran’s proposed… pic.twitter.com/BkKeJFHOqK
President Trump offered a couple of other glimpses into what's ahead if Iran plays ball during negotiations.
— Katie Pavlich (@KatiePavlich) April 8, 2026
Classic carrots and sticks from the author of The Art of the Deal. We will maintain a naval presence in the Gulf for the foreseeable future to ensure the safe passage of the bottleneck of ships waiting in line. And that certainly is not compatible with an Iran using a terrorist military apparatus extorting $2 million dollars per ship to cross safely. Secretary Rubio said last week that the toll Iran was implementing was temporary and would not be acceptable going forward. Iran will have to give that up if these negotiations are to go anywhere.
But Trump is the ultimate optimist. He sees great things for the Middle East with an Iran that is no longer in the terrorism business. Unstated, but very much in the background here, is Trump quietly signaling to the Iranian population yearning for freedom but waiting for the bombs to stop falling. If you were looking for a sign, this would be the time. I'm sure he'd like to get a signed deal first, but the revolution could soon be at hand. If Ghalibaf and Araghchi were smart, after signing the deal, they'd hop on the reform bus and go very public, very quickly, and continue to knock off remaining IRGC hardliners internally. You might also look for them to buddy up publicly to Iran's regular army - the Artesh.
Trump also made another statement about one of the core objectives of Epic Fury - removing the highly-enriched uranium.
President Donald Trump told AFP on Tuesday that Iran’s uranium will be “perfectly taken care of” under the ceasefire agreement, without specifying how, and he left open the possibility of resuming strikes on Iranian power plants if the deal collapses.
— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) April 8, 2026
Trump said the deal…
In review, American goals:
Destroy missile capacity and industrial complex for making them - check. Steel plants, missile cities, thousands of launch sites, and mobile launchers have been destroyed. All of them? Certainly not. But their capacity to build again? Years of time to rebuild factories, and no money in the regime with which to build them.
Annihilate Iran's navy - check. If there's an Iranian boat out there bigger than a dinghy, it has fish swimming around it waiting for kelp to grow.
Sever support for terror proxies - check. Iran can't pay the salaries of the IRGC or Basij forces inside their own country. There's no money to give to proxies, no missiles or rockets to send them, no place to build new ones if they wanted to send them to proxy militias, and no boats or planes with which to send them, even if they could.
Ensure Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon - Check...ish. Trump just said that part of their agreed ceasefire was handing over the highly-enriched uranium. Their nuclear facilities, nuclear scientists, and primary university specializing in nuclear science, all have been destroyed. We have intel all throughout Iran, as do the Israelis. We have eyes on them from the ground and from space, 24/7. The second they start to break the agreement and begin to build anew, it will get another visit like a cropduster to a cornfield when the bugs get a little too thick.
Israel's goals? I'm sure they would like to see the regime crash entirely. Do not be surprised if their fingerprints are all over eventual uprisings or a future color revolution. That chapter is still unwritten. But the proxies are nowhere near the threat they once were, and if cut off from future funding and support from the former head of the terrorism snake, they should wither on the vine in fairly short order.
Iran's goals? Did they survive? Well, some of them did. Did the first tier survive? No. Did the second tier? No. Did some of them from the practice squad make it? Yes. Are they eschatological death cultists? Agreeing to a ceasefire and negotiating on Donald Trump's terms do not seem to indicate that.
The proof will be in the pudding. The rockets have to stop well before face-to-face negotiations begin later this week. And traffic through the Strait has to rapidly speed up. Will they? The markets seem to think so. Even though the Dow's Tuesday trading day was long closed before the ceasefire was announced, the overnight pre-market trading as of 5:00 AM Wednesday morning showed the Dow would open up over a thousand points, with the S&P and Nasdaq also poised for huge gains. And oil absolutely plummeted overnight. 15% drop, in fact, which, if not a record for one day, has got to be close to one. It's set to open up around $92 dollars a barrel, down from $111 the day before, and that's before the market opens here on Wednesday.
Again, considering this is a two-week ceasefire, a pause in hostilities, with negotiations Iran refused to entertain just 24 hours ago, you tell me. Who do you think is getting the better end of the deal - Iran, Democrats, and American media, or Donald Trump?
Cuba, you're on deck.
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