Despite the hundreds of thousands of protesters on the streets and the millions more that might sympathize with them, AKP too has millions of supporters. Even if the extreme reaction of the last week has forced some people off the political fence and onto the side of the protesters, AKP can still count on support from much of its conservative base, who helped elect it to a third electoral victory in 2011.

Three outcomes are possible. Least likely is that Erdogan will concede to demands for his resignation and early elections that could sweep AKP out of office. He intensifies his rhetoric daily and defiantly insists that construction on Gezi Park will go forward. Having painted himself into a tight political corner, Erdogan sees himself unable to respond to protesters without looking weak, no matter how many people head to the streets—a shame since even acknowledging the protesters could do much to calm the situation.

A second, more likely outcome is that the protest movement will peter out after several more days or weeks, dissuaded by the ongoing injuries, arrests, and deaths that will accompany continued police violence. We must only hope that the state response stops short of harsher tactics like increased arrests and the ordering of civilian deaths, which would seriously harm human rights as well as Turkey’s international standing. In the longer term, successfully evading calls for reform would probably entrench Erdogan’s domineering tendencies, which could potentially spell a tragic, slow slide into authoritarianism.

A third possibility—a long, Syria-like intractable civil conflict—seems premature.