Trump's Approval Looking Good in Swing States

Political geeks often obsess about poll numbers, but outside election years, we tend only to have access to national numbers.  

National approval ratings are not irrelevant, of course, but they don't actually tell you what political geeks need to know to gauge potential election outcomes. Political players in Washington, though, care much more about what their specific constituents think, not what the vast number of voters in coastal cities do. 

We all know that Trump's approval numbers in New York City, Washington, Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Chicago will be in the toilet. The big question is how he is doing in swing states and districts, because those people decide who will be elected to Congress in 2026. 

Senators and Congressmen are very sensitive to the president's poll numbers, which in many cases matter more than their own. Most Congressmen are hardly known even in their districts, and voters often take their frustrations with the president out on more local elected officials when the president is not on the ballot. 

So, how is Trump doing where it matters politically?

Morning Consult: Trump net approval

🟢 North Carolina: +6
🟢 Georgia: +6
🟢 Nevada: +6
🟢 Arizona: +1
🟢 Pennsylvania: +1
🟤 Michigan: -2
🟤 Wisconsin: -5
——
Other States (highest to lowest)

🟢 Wyoming: +44
🟢 West Virginia: +33
🟢 North Dakota: +27
🟢 Idaho: +26
🟢 Alabama:… https://t.co/euFHNxbGYs pic.twitter.com/OWS0FrAAJN

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 9, 2025

Pretty well, believe it or not. Morning Consult, which has been polling in the states as well as nationally, shows Trump with positive approval ratings in more than half the states, and in five of the seven swing states. 

Trump's national numbers may not look so hot, even in their polls, but it sure looks like he is well-positioned when it comes to satisfying swing voters. 

• Trump’s net approval rating is above water in 27 states: That’s up from 26 states in last month’s update and is due to a 1-percentage-point increase to Trump’s net approval rating in Arizona, where previously voters were evenly split on his job performance. Trump also has a positive net approval rating in three other 2024 swing states: Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina.

• Sentiment remains in the red in key 2025 states: Trump is underwater in two states set to host big gubernatorial races this fall. In Virginia, 45% of voters now approve of his job performance, down from 46% last month, while 52% disapprove, unchanged over that time frame. And in New Jersey, 44% approve of Trump, while 53% disapprove, which is unchanged from our last update.

It's not all sweetness and light for Trump. His approval is underwater in Virginia and New Jersey, where there are gubernatorial races this year. New Jersey is not generally considered a swing state for obvious reasons, but Democrats are worried about the gubernatorial race. 

DC Democrats are starting to panic over @MikieSherrill’s weakness in the NJ governor’s race: https://t.co/QVpzPBK6Ce

— Matt Rooney (@MattRooneyNJ) July 9, 2025

Liberal groups are pouring millions of dollars into ads in the state to bolster their candidate due to worries that she may not be strong enough to take on a well-liked Republican. 

Greater Garden State, a super PAC backed by the Democratic Governors Association, is spending $20 million on ads on television, digital and streaming platforms, according to an announcement shared first with NBC News. The ad buy is more than Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy and aligned outside groups spent on ads combined in the 2021 general election.

Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill is running to succeed Murphy, who cannot run for re-election because of term limits. Sherrill is competing against Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a former state legislator and the party's 2021 nominee, who easily won the GOP primary with President Donald Trump’s endorsement.

“The DGA is committed to holding New Jersey’s governorship and making sure that voters up and down the Garden State understand the stakes of this election,” DGA political director Jordy Zeigler said in a statement, which linked Ciattarelli to Trump and said Sherrill was focused on the cost of living.

Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears is running behind her Democratic Party opponent in Virginia. Current Governor Glenn Youngkin is term-limited out, and while he has been a popular governor, we will have to see whether his low-key charm transfers well to his understudy. Sears is markedly more conservative than Youngkin, with a persona that excites Republicans while putting off many of Virginia's more moderate voters. 

Many signs suggest a comfortable victory this fall for Democrat Abigail Spanberger against Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia’s gubernatorial contest. Spanberger had $14.3 million in cash on hand this month compared to just $3 million for Earle-Sears, the current lieutenant governor. Spanberger, a former congresswoman, has led in early polls, including a whopping 17-point advantage in a Roanoke College survey in May. (Yeah, I know, many Virginians aren’t tuned in yet, so that barometer is shaky.)

Virginia may be a heavy lift, and New Jersey is always a long shot for Republicans. The president has alienated pretty much all the federal workers who are concentrated in Northern Virginia, and Spanberger can count on unlimited financial support. 

Trump's regional popularity in swing districts may not translate into votes in areas that lean Democratic, but his strength in many swing districts probably explains why he is getting big legislative wins.