The 154-page report, “US Nonproliferation Strategy for the Changing Middle East,” produced by five nonproliferation experts, was expected to be released on Monday.

“Based on the current trajectory of Iran’s nuclear program, we estimate that Iran could reach critical capability in mid-2014,” the report said.

It defined “critical capability” as the point when Iran would be able to produce enough weapon-grade uranium for one or more bombs without detection by the West.

By mid-2014, Iran would have enough time to build a secret uranium-enrichment site or significantly increase the number of centrifuges for its nuclear program, said David Albright, one of the project’s co-chairs and president of the Institute for Science and International Security.