Will Jordan be the next state to fall to the Muslim Brotherhood?

An even more serious issue is that the country’s population is divided against itself. The split here is based not on sectarian fault lines, as in Syria and Iraq, but rather on national, geographical, and historical ones. On the one hand are the Bedouins, also known as the East Bankers, who fill the ranks of the military and the security apparatus and other public sector jobs. On the other are the Palestinians who constitute a majority—anywhere from 60 to more than 80 percent—of the population…

Jordan’s regional problems are just as daunting as its domestic concerns. “It feels like it’s caught between an Islamist Egypt and a potentially jihadist Syria,” Satloff said. This is reminiscent of Jordan’s situation in the 1950s and ‘60s when it was caught between Arab nationalist powers in Egypt and Syria constantly trying to destabilize the kingdom, typically by attacking it for its relationship with the United States and its more clandestine ties to Israel.

The Jordan-Israel relationship was further strengthened with the 1994 peace treaty, institutionalizing a significant security relationship that has benefited both countries. For Jerusalem, explained the former Israeli official, “Jordan is the most critical strategic question. Jordan’s army is smaller than Egypt’s but it faces a longer border.” And that border, if open or manned by an unfriendly Arab power, would constitute the majority of the Middle East’s access route to Israel.