Is the election over?

The conventional wisdom, as I read it, rests heavily on the following propositions.

(1) The economy is improving and will continue to improve, depriving the Republicans (and particularly the front-runner, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney) of their most powerful issue. This week, the government reported that economic growth hit a 3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2011. Not great, but better than recent performance.

(2) Romney and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, now his closest rival, are — each in his own way — alienating crucial independent voters. Romney is typecast as a wealthy businessman out of touch with most Americans. A recent Pew poll asked respondents whether he “understands the needs of people like you.” Only 31 percent agreed; 60 percent didn’t. For his part, Santorum is regarded as an extreme social conservative bent on imposing his moral code on the nation.

(3) The leading Republican candidates can be counted on to commit regular gaffes — Romney’s offhand comment about his wife’s Cadillacs, Santorum’s reference to the president as a “snob” — that make them look disconnected and un-presidential. In the general election, Obama will run circles around either of them.

(4) Finally, the Republican House of Representatives will serve as a priceless foil for Obama.