Up until today it has been pretty clear that the Trump administration was cutting off Cuba's supply of oil in order to pressure the country into some kind of change in approach. First it was oil supply from Venezuela that was cut off and then the administration also asked Mexico to stop sending oil to Cuba as well.
The expectation was that Cuba would soon run out of oil completely and the intermittent blackouts the island has been expereincing would become a permanent feature until such time that Cuba's communist leader agreed to step aside. But today, the US allowed a Russian oil tanker to arrive in Cuba.
The United States Coast Guard is allowing a Russian tanker full of crude oil to reach Cuba, delivering a critical supply of energy to the island nation after months of an effective oil blockade by the Trump administration, according to a U.S. official briefed on the matter.
The tanker, which is carrying an estimated 730,000 barrels of oil and is owned by the Russian government, was within several miles of Cuban territorial waters on Sunday evening, according to MarineTraffic, a ship-data provider. At its speed of 12 knots, it could reach its expected destination of Matanzas, Cuba, by Monday night...
The Coast Guard has two cutters in the region that could have attempted to intercept the Russian tanker. Yet the Trump administration did not order those vessels to act, according to a U.S. official briefed on the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operations. Barring orders instructing it otherwise, the Coast Guard planned to let the tanker reach Cuba as of Sunday afternoon, the official said.
It was unclear why the White House did not issue orders to block the tanker or whether it would allow future Russian oil shipments to reach the island. The decision avoids a potential thorny confrontation with Russia just off the coast of Florida.
President Trump was asked about this at the White House last night and said that he didn't mind if some country wanted to send Cuba a little oil because one boatload wouldn't make a difference. "Cuba is finished," Trump said. He added, "And whether or not they get a boat of oil, it’s not going to matter."
Reporter: There's a report that the US is going to let a Russian oil tanker go to Cuba?
— Acyn (@Acyn) March 30, 2026
Trump: If a country wants to send some oil into Cuba, I have no problem with that.
Reporter: Do you worry that that helps Putin?
Trump: It doesn’t help him. He loses one boatload of oil.… pic.twitter.com/8Vh6gHwaxs
Today, the White House emphasized that there had been no policy change toward Cuba.
The White House said on Monday it has not changed U.S. policy toward Cuba, even as it allowed a sanctioned Russian tanker to deliver fuel to the island for humanitarian reasons, saying such decisions would be handled on a case-by-case basis.
"This is not a policy change. There has not been a formal change in sanctions policy," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters. "As the president said last night, we allowed this ship to reach Cuba in order to provide humanitarian needs to the Cuban people."
Outside observers consider it likely Russia will keep sending Cuba oil for as long as necessary.
Brett Erickson, Managing Principal of Obsidian Risk Advisors, said the U.S. decision not to interdict the Kolodkin — itself under pre-Trump sanctions imposed against Russia over Ukraine — would likely embolden Moscow. He said Washington may have decided that in the midst of a war with Iran, it could not risk a confrontation with Moscow over Cuba.
“Seizing or boarding a Russian vessel while simultaneously managing an active military conflict in Iran would pour fuel on already volatile energy markets,” Erickson said. “The geopolitical cost of direct confrontation with Russia right now may simply be a step further than Washington is willing to take. This is the downstream consequence of a scattershot foreign policy, when you’re overextended on every front, you lose the ability to enforce on any of them.”
“The Anatoly will not be the last” shipment of Russian oil to Cuba, he predicted.
Will Russia be able to keep this up? That's another question. The rise in oil prices has certainly helped them but presumably Cuba isn't in a position to pay them much, or possibly at all, for the oil. And it's not like the Russia economy is doing all that well to start with. That seems to be Trump's take. All Cuba gains is enough to survive and Russia loses a boat full of oil. In the long run it's probably not that significant.
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