“I think the parallel here is 1980,” said David Yepsen, who covered eight presidential races at the Des Moines Register. “In 1980, the Republican field was chopped up among a lot of different conservatives, including [Ronald] Reagan. And George H.W. Bush, as a more moderate candidate, won with a plurality. I think Romney could win with a plurality.”…

Deace argues that an opportunity remains for “true-blue” conservatives like Santorum or Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.) to emerge from the pack.

If they do not, Deace argues, “Newt Gingrich will win the Iowa caucuses.”

On caucus night, Deace added, “People talk to each other. And [conservatives] are going to stand up and say, ‘We don’t want Romney coming out of this, so who’s next?’ Newt has done the best job of anyone recently of communicating the social conservative worldview.”