Harry Reid’s nuclear blunder

But the damage for Democrats could go far beyond any immediate legislative consequences. Consider: Republicans need to pick up just four seats in 2012 to take back the Senate majority. They have a strong structural advantage going into next year’s election. The GOP must defend only 10 seats in the Senate, while Democrats and their allies must defend 23 — and many of those Democratic seats are in states where Republicans scored major victories in 2010. As Sen. John Cornyn (Tex.), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, puts it, “They’re not only defending twice as many seats as Republicans, but a number of them are in states where the Obama-Reid agenda is deeply unpopular.” Add to the mix Obama’s plunging job approval, and the odds of a restored Republican majority in the Senate grow.

While Republicans are in a strong position to take control of the Senate, their odds of winning a 60-vote, filibuster-proof majority are remote. But now, thanks to Reid, they may not need 60 votes. Reid has established that the majority can ignore the rules in order to gag the minority and declare something dilatory by simple majority vote. This is a filibuster-busting precedent that a Republican majority could use to overcome Democratic opposition on any number of issues — from taxes and spending to revising the debt-limit deal, reversing defense spending cuts and even repealing Obamacare.