Few vulnerable Democrats this November will run anything like the kind of clumsy and somnolent campaign conducted by Martha Coakley. Few Republican challengers will have the luxury enjoyed by Scott Brown to pose as all things to all people: a “liberal Republican” to some, a nonpartisan to others, and a tea party zealot to the rest. No other venue will give Republicans the opportunity to attack national health care reform by way of defending identical reforms at the state level. And few states will provide GOP candidates with a fat-and-happy state Democratic establishment used to winning with little or no effort (indeed, some states, such as Georgia and South Carolina, have a fat-and-happy Republican establishment with a growing record of corruption and toxic infighting). More fundamentally, the idea that a Republican Senate victory in Massachusetts means the nation is turning “red” makes no more sense that asserting Nebraska or Alaska turned “blue” when they elected Democratic senators in actual general elections without the skewed turnout patterns exhibited in the Bay State’s special election.
But what makes the new over-confidence so dangerous for the GOP goes beyond the enduring facts that the Republican “brand” remains damaged and that congressional Republicans are distrusted by the public even more than congressional Democrats. The rise in the party’s short-term fortunes has occurred even as it has negotiated a rare, post-defeat race-to-the-Right. This trend has been punctuated by scorched-earth tactics in Congress and a virtual witch-hunt for moderate “RINOs” to vilify and defeat in primaries. At some point, and perhaps soon, the “new” Republican Party will have to define itself as something other than a pure opposition party.
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