Abortion, however, is likely to prove a much tougher circle to square. On one side, there are the pro-choice forces, which aren’t much happier with the Nelson language in the Senate bill than they were with the Stupak amendment. On the other, there are Stupak and ten other pro-life Democrats who voted for the House bill but earlier wrote a letter to Pelosi saying they “cannot support any health care reform proposal unless it explicitly excludes abortion from the scope of any government-defined or subsidized health insurance plan” — which the Senate bill does not. Last weekend, Stupak deemed the Nelson language “unacceptable.”
The idea that Pelosi will wind up backing Stupak is close to unthinkable; not only would the potential losses on the left be too great, but it would never pass muster with pro-choicers in the Senate such as Barbara Boxer. The greater likelihood is that choicers will knuckle under and accept the Nelson language (which has Boxer’s imprimatur) and Pelosi will make up for the lost votes of the Stupak faction by picking up some of the 39 Democrats who voted against the House measure. Largely conservative, this bloc was put off mainly by the inclusion of the public option, but with it now off the table — and with other “cornhusker kickback”–esque goodies available to be tossed their way — just enough of them might be persuaded to vote “aye” this time.
Or maybe not — I mean, who knows? Certainly not Pelosi, who, like Reid, has been flying by wire on health care from the start, without a map or a compass or any tried-and-tested navigating tools.
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