Pakistan is teetering

For the Obama administration, Zardari’s political troubles pose an especially tricky challenge. After the White House’s second Af-Pak strategy review culminated in a pledge to send an additional 30,000 troops to Afghanistan, there is no doubt that the United States needs a strong partner in Islamabad in order to advance its regional counterterrorism and counterinsurgency efforts. A distracted Zardari hounded by opposition forces and an activist supreme court hardly qualifies. As long as this precarious condition persists, Islamabad’s civilian government will be unable to deliver short-term improvements in security, much less to begin institutional reforms and make investments that are needed to promote stability and good governance over the long run…

Yet the Obama team’s other realistic alternatives are also unappealing. Should Zardari fall hard, he might take the Pakistan People’s Party—or PPP, one of Pakistan’s most liberal, and its only truly national party—down with him. Pakistan’s other major parties are more regional, ethnic, or Islamist in composition; the weakening or fragmentation of the PPP could exacerbate longstanding interprovincial conflicts in Pakistani politics and further sap the state’s capacity to confront the extremists and insurgents who keep Washington’s policymakers up at night…

Recognizing that there are no magic bullet solutions to politics in Pakistan, the Obama administration should brace itself for a bumpy ride in the near term and steer clear of costly entanglements with specific Pakistani leaders.