The Dawn of Yemen

Duane Patterson 12:40 PM | October 06, 2026
AP Photo

The Houthis had a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day on Monday, and I'm here for it. 

Yesterday, we posted a very long recap of last week's events in what is currently the most dynamic and fluid phase of the ongoing war against the Islamic Republic of Iran. It reads like a movie script, with Yemen government forces and allies whittling away at Houthi terrorist strongholds, only to have those gains lost in a day. But instead of giving up (and in) to the Houthis, the Yemen-Saudi-Giant Brigade forces dug deep, regrouped, and pushed back hard. 

The bad news about the Taiz setback was that the mountainous high ground would remain contested for a while longer. The good news is while the Houthis were concentrating efforts there, the Yemenis were calling in their version of NATO's Article 5 in the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, and that call has been answered by both Pakistan and Turkey. 

On September 10, Yemen, the Giant Brigades, and the Saudis seemingly had Houthi forces surrounded in the No Man's Land highlands plateau of Central Yemen. The ring of containment was in place...until the Saudi line to the southwest collapsed, allowing the Houthis a corridor through the Taiz mountain pass and down to the Red Sea Coast. Because virtually all of Yemen's military efforts were focused on the middle of the country, the Houthis exploited that gap and took control of the strategic city of Mokha, complete with an airport, virtually all of the coastal strip, and of a couple islands in the al-Mandab Strait. The price of oil the day before the Red Sea Coast fell was around $95 a barrel, but it spiked to $108 over fears that the second most strategic chokepoint in the region was now threatened by Iranian-backed terrorists. 

Flash forward to yesterday. Once again, the region around Taiz remained the key ground to take and hold by both Yemen government forces as well as the Houthis. If the former controls that ground, Houthis on the coast to the west would have a hard time holding the Strait over time. If the latter controls it, supply roads to Yemen's back-up capital city of Aden to the south would be cut off. The Houthis sent everything from all directions to Taiz, which left the pro-Yemen alliance an opening to do to the Houthis what was done to them a month ago. Operation Dawn of Yemen commenced in the early morning hours, and instead of dawn rising in the east, it rose, in this case, in the west. 

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Over a hundred Saudi aircraft and thousands of ground forces swarmed the Red Sea coast in an all-out blitz, and within a few hours, hundreds of Houthis were dead where they fell, and those who weren't killed either surrendered or ran away. 

The images and videos coming out of the region are nothing short of extraordinary. 

In the mountains, there are plenty of places to hide. On flat sand near the water, there's nowhere a Toyota pickup can hide from an angry Saudi fighter pilot. 

Many of those Houthi fighters that threw their weapons down and surrendered were just kids. They really didn't want to be there in the first place. 

Scenes like this were everywhere after the shooting was over. 

The Houthis out of Sana'a said the pro-Yemen victory was fake news, but they could not offer up any evidence backing their claim. Conversely, dozens of videos like this were posted by pro-government forces. It looked like a rout. 

24 hours ago, this was the gate to a Houthi military camp right next to the mouth of the al-Mandab Strait. Today? It's been liberated. 

More video of captured Houthi fighters. 

Dhubab Airport next to the Strait is no longer under Houthi control. 

I'm old enough to remember when General Tommy Franks at CENTCOM directed the march across Iraq to take Baghdad in 2003. Once coalition forces were on the move from Kuwait, they mowed down anything in their path until they reached the ancient city. Monday's imagery, while nowhere near comparable in scope and land mass covered, resembled that same open backfield of 2003. The Houthis made the same mistake they exploited last month by not reinforcing the coast, thinking the smarter move was to concentrate on the mountains around Taiz. 

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This account says the Houthis are almost done. I think Monday was a very big step in that direction, but Yemen isn't completely out of the woods. Monday was a very good day, because several hundred fewer Houthi terrorists did not survive it. But Taiz has to be taken and held, and then the final battle for Sana'a looms. 

Just under a month ago, we saw images of Houthis in trucks with their rifles pointed skyward going down this same airport runway in celebration. It's now a complete role reversal, and with that, a significantly-reduced threat to shipping traffic through the al-Mandab Strait. 

More kids forced to play soldier that were spared by pro-government forces. 

After capturing and holding the southern part of the Red Sea Coast, the drive north to liberate Mokha was next.

When government forces got there, it was the same result. Houthis that weren't killed either made a run for it or simply gave up.

If a Houthi pointed a rifle, they were shot dead, run over, or blown up. If they gave up, they were treated humanely. 

Another kid. This one is around 14 years old, and he most certainly did not want to die today. 

And another. 

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This is the vaunted Houthi militia — kids with guns and adults high as a kite on khat. Keep this in mind when you're thinking about what remains in Iran with IRGC and Basij forces. They've had so many desertions and suicides, they've resorted to conscripting boys to run checkpoints with guns. Women in burqas are being quickly armed and trained to do basic sentry. Mind you, no one's getting paid. Their hearts cannot truly be in this fight to save the dying regime. 

Now for the fun part. Monday's action was not relegated solely to the southern Red Sea Coast. Yesterday, my column mentioned the Houthis' desire to cut off Aden's supply line to the south. But Yemen government forces also had a supply line of their own they wanted to take out feeding the Houthis entrenched in the capital city of Sana'a. And that line runs to west to the Red Sea coastal port city of Hodeidah. 

The route to the sea and the primary seaport for the Houthis is now contested, and Houthi assets are systematically being destroyed. This is a big reason why Brent crude prices just fell below $100 a barrel again. If Yemen holds the Red Sea coast and threats to shipping out of Hodeidah are neutralized, oil will move more freely to Asia through the Strait.

To their north above Sana'a in Marib, Operation Dawn of Yemen paid a visit as well.

Once Marib to the northeast is cleared, it's another open backfield south to Sana'a. 

And this is before Turkey and Pakistan have fully deployed their troops, which is underway.

In yesterday's column, I told you to keep your eyes on Taiz, because control over that would determine whether the Houthis live on for a while, or whether Sana'a was encircled and eventually engaged on all sides. After the Houthis that could flee the coast fled to the hills, that's when their bad day really kicked into gear. Ambushes were waiting for them everywhere. 

There's still a lot of work to do in very rugged terrain, but right now, the Houthis are getting the worst of it. 

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There were some reports that the mountains weren't safe, either, and several Houthi units bugged out of there as well. 

For other Houthis running into Taiz from the coast, they were disoriented by the chaos of the day and relied on locals to help them navigate the terrain. Naturally, the locals sent them the wrong way, and on top of being caught in ambushes, they got hopelessly lost. 

From another account translated from Arabic. 

Confusion among Houthi fighters coming from outside #Taiz in the province's countryside: 
▪️A citizen in Jabal Habashi: There is currently a small lost Houthi group in the village of "Dhi al-Shahran" in the Nemra district, searching for help to find their way out. 
▪️A citizen in Al-Ma'afir: I met a Houthi military squad in the "Ras al-Naqil" area near Al-Alum; they have lost communication with their comrades.. He asked me: What is the name of this area and where does this road lead?

*Fares al-Humairi

Other Houthi fighters around Taiz tried to plant a bunch of mines to slow down advancing Yemeni and Giant Brigade forces. The problem was they were coming too fast and they had to leave everything behind and run away before being overrun. 

If you want an A/B to see how good of a day the Houthis had, what better way than to hear from the Houthis themselves? This is Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a current member of the Houthi political bureau. A week ago, his rhetoric was all fire and brimstone. If the Mecca pact were invoked and Pakistan and/or Turkey got involved, he warned, "We will strike with an iron fist." The bravado then was positively IRGCesque. 

Going from 'striking with an iron fist' to pleading for parlay in a week should indicate how things are going if you're not yet convinced by the volume of Yemen and Saudi battlefront videos.  

One post on the events around Yemen today really caught my eye and brought it all home as we wrap up the Houthi part of the column. Fatima Alasrar, a writer and scholar on Iran and Yemen, noted the treatment given to captured Houthis by both Yemeni forces and the Giant Brigades. 

It's not the entire country of Yemen that has become radicalized. Most of them, in fact, do not want the Houthis among them. That's why tribal forces have aligned with the legitimate Yemeni government. It's why Saudi Arabia announced an amnesty to Yemenis living inside the Kingdom. Pretty much everybody in the region wants the Houthis gone, and at their core, the average Yemeni doesn't harbor ill will globally to much of anyone. The radicalization we've seen recently is 100 percent Iranian-driven. This is why Donald Trump, the Israelis, and our GCC partners have finally decided to quit kicking the Iranian can down the road. This is why this fight matters. It's why an extra buck in gas and diesel prices back home are a small price to pay if we can finally chop the head off this octopus, and with help from our regional partners, sever all of the tentacles emanating from it. 

And speaking of Iran before we conclude, we should recap the state of things inside the rump regime. The economic topline? Grisly. 

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A few weeks ago, we showed you what happens when airline maintenance in Iran isn't done because ground crews aren't getting paid and spare parts can't be imported. Now imagine flying in a commercial plane where the front window is literally duct taped in place. 

Duct tape is legendary in NASCAR. It's called 200-mile-per-hour tape, and has held fenders, spoilers, and all sorts of other parts together after a wreck so a car can finish the race and the driver can receive more points for the season. In fact, the motto goes, or so I'm told, "When all else fails, duct it." It's one thing when you're on the ground relying on tape to keep the car around you in one piece. Using tape at altitude going 500 miles an hour? Hard pass. 

More kids in Iran are showing their displeasure with the governance of the regime, and are calling out for the return of Pahlavi. 

Even the New York Times, who intimated Iran was winning the war not too long ago, sees the effects of the economic squeeze applied by President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent, and has had a rethink. 

In the Balochi uprising ongoing in the southeastern part of Iran, the regime body count is rising. 

Conditions for workers still fortunate enough to have a job, even if it's basically without pay, continue to deteriorate. 

Mechanics and repair shops have seen a huge drop in business as truck drivers can't afford the installment payments on the trucks, the diesel to put in them, or the maintenance to keep them on the road. The second and third-tier effects of a contracting economy are shifting into a more destructive gear. 

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Instant karma hit Iran's chief of Economic Security Police, Hossein Rahimi. It's never reassuring when you're giving a speech on economic stability and the lights go out because there's not enough fuel to run the power plants 24/7.

The ghost stories about Cardboard Mojtaba Khamenei sightings pile up, but there do not seem to be very many believers. 

And finally, in what may be another indication the regime crackup is happening in real time, the Iranian Parliament just erupted in a heated verbal fight. The issue? Iran's Central Bank has about $2 billion left of American currency, and they're putting it up for sale on a quota basis. For a mere 2.5 billion Tomans, you can purchase $10,000 U.S. dollars that will actually buy you stuff, unlike the rial which is nearing a 270,000 to one dollar exchange ratio. 

Mehdi Kouchakzadeh, a member of Parliament and of the IRGC regime, called that an outrage. It's taking some of the final reserves Iran has and divvying it up among the elite in the country -- in all likelihood the most corrupt members of the regime being the only people able to come up with enough worthless Iranian currency to make the exchange. The rich in this case won't necessarily get richer, because sanctions are killing everyone. But the regimists who can convert to dollars will survive a bit longer than ordinary Iranians who will never get a chance at the $10,000 lottery. 

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This kind of dissension was unthinkable before the blockade and economic sanctions took hold. Regime members are now openly feuding with each other in public. How will the rest of the week go in the Middle East? Keep your eyes on the Taiz prize. The Iranian regime's longevity forecast may be shaped by when or how fast the Houthis fall in Yemen. 

Tags:

DONALD TRUMP HOUTHIS IRAN PAKISTAN SAUDI ARABIA TURKEY

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