How much would the US pay for a fully denuclearized Iran? Or better put: How much of Iran's money would Donald Trump give back to Tehran in exchange for its highly enriched uranium (HEU)? And for how much of it?
Axios reports this morning that the deal with Iran to which Trump alluded yesterday afternoon involves a deal rather than an ultimatum. The US would be willing to make Iran an offer it probably can't refuse, especially with its economy and infrastructure in complete collapse. Trump would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian assets in exchange for the transfer of Iran's HEU stores, along with an agreement to end all enrichment activities. But it may be a little too good for Iran at the moment:
Zoom in: According to two sources, the U.S was ready in an earlier stage of the negotiations to release $6 billion for Iran to purchase food, medicine and other humanitarian supplies. The Iranians demanded $27 billion.
- The latest number discussed by the U.S. and Iran is $20 billion, the sources said. One U.S. official said that was a U.S. proposal. The other U.S. official described the cash-for-uranium concept as "one of many discussions."
- Meanwhile, the U.S. asked Iran to agree to ship all its nuclear material to the U.S., while the Iranians only agreed to "down-blend" it inside Iran.
- Under a compromise proposal now under discussion, some of the highly enriched uranium would be shipped to a third country, not necessarily the U.S., and some of it would be down-blended in Iran under international monitoring.
That may be an offer the Iranians can't refuse, but is it an offer we should make? Perhaps we need less Vito and more Michael at this point:
To some extent, Trump is offering Iran nothing. He's even making Iran pay the application fee, so to speak, by using their money to buy out their nuclear program. But this does not sound like the complete surrender that Moammar Qaddafi provided in 2004 when he agreed to completely denuclearize and hand over all of his program's materials to the US. This sounds suspiciously similar to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), in which Barack Obama and John Kerry provided the mullahs with billions of dollars for a nominal transfer of uranium and empty promises to stop enrichment and weapons development. Verification turned out to be a joke, and Iran kept racing towards full nuclearization until the US took action last June and again over the last two months.
The context of this plan is sharply different from that in 2015, however. Obama and Kerry couldn't wait to get the US out of the region and hand it over to Iran. The regime in Iran understood those intentions and knew that as long as Obama and his acolytes remained in charge, all they needed to do was to play some Kabuki theater around compliance. Trump's election scotched the deal, but Obama had the JCPOA crafted to give Iran all of its benefits up front, and Trump was too tied up with the Russia-collusion hoax and then the 'scandal' of his call to Volodymyr Zelensky to use military force to end Iran's march to nuclearization. By the time the Obama acolytes returned in the Biden Regency, the JCPOA was no longer necessary for the mullahs.
This time around, the IRGC understands that Trump and the US will use all of its power to stop nuclearization, and that at least in the short term, compliance is no longer theater. However, they also know that Trump's term ends in less than three years, and they may get another Obama-esque administration in 2029 that won't care about enforcing compliance.
That's why any deal to end this war has to strip Iran of all resources for nuclearization, and enforcement has to be robust and immediate. Kicking this can down the road any further will produce an IRGC mushroom cloud, sooner rather than later. If this deal leaves any HEU and/or centrifuges in regime hands, it's a deal that shouldn't be made. Get all of the HEU out of Iran, and ensure the destruction of their centrifuge systems, and that's a deal worth $20 billion of anyone's money.
Meanwhile, the regime still acts in a manner that reduces confidence in honest accountability to nil. Abbas Araghchi announced this morning that Iran is reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but ...
In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran.
— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) April 17, 2026
This is a weak attempt to get the US to lift its blockade on Iran, and it doesn't even address the real issue. First, Araghchi is still telling shippers that they have to use the "already announced" route that forces ships through Iran's territorial waters rather than international waters in the central portion of the strait. Iran dropped some mines in the latter route, which the US Navy plans to clear in the next few days. Araghchi and the regime likely will still demand "tolls" for ships passing through the "coordinated route," defying the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which Iran's mullahcracy signed in 1982. (I addressed this last week.) If Iran wants to open the Strait of Hormuz, they can collect their own mines and stand liable for any damage done for their criminal acts in targeting civilian commerce.
Trump seemed to embrace the sentiment, anyway:
IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE. THANK YOU!
Trump rapidly followed up by insisting that he's not falling for the banana-in-the-tailpipe trick, however:
THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS COMPLETELY OPEN AND READY FOR BUSINESS AND FULL PASSAGE, BUT THE NAVAL BLOCKADE WILL REMAIN IN FULL FORCE AND EFFECT AS IT PERTAINS TO IRAN, ONLY, UNTIL SUCH TIME AS OUR TRANSACTION WITH IRAN IS 100% COMPLETE. THIS PROCESS SHOULD GO VERY QUICKLY IN THAT MOST OF THE POINTS ARE ALREADY NEGOTIATED. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J.TRUMP
Talk is cheap, in other words, but talk can still move markets. Oil markets appreciated the sentiment, too:
Oil prices are falling as traders show optimism that Iran’s latest statement on the Strait of Hormuz signaled an easing of tensions. “In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire,” said Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, on his X account Friday.
We'll see. Trump and the Pentagon have argued for weeks that the threat to shipping from Iran was overblown and that the US would backstop insurers for carriers using the passage, but few ships have tested those waters. We'll see if they try now or wait for the US Navy to do more clean-up work in the international passage first.
Update: Trump denies the Axios report, claiming that the nuclear "dust" will come to the US without any cash exchange:
The U.S.A. will get all Nuclear “Dust,” created by our great B2 Bombers - No money will exchange hands in any way, shape, or form. This deal is in no way subject to Lebanon, either, but the USA will, separately, work with Lebanon, and deal with the Hezboolah situation in an appropriate manner. Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!! Thank you! President DJT
The cash isn't the issue. The HEU and the centrifuges are the issue. Let's make sure we get it all.
Editor's Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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