Did Donald Trump back down this morning? Apparently not. In a press briefing a few minutes ago at Palm Beach International Airport, Trump explained his decision to postpone the ultimatum on Iran, a move arranged by the intercession of Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan. If he can get a deal that delivers on disarmament and an end to Iranian terror activities, Trump said (and as I noted earlier), great. If not, well ...
NOW: President Trump reveals Iran is "very much" looking to negotiate, saying if they can't make a deal, the U.S. will "keep bombing our little hearts out."
— FOX & Friends (@foxandfriends) March 23, 2026
"We're doing a five day period. We'll see how that goes and if it goes well, we're going to end up with, settling this.… pic.twitter.com/eihgCeRzNP
What deal would Trump be willing to make? He laid out the demands that would end hostilities, and ... they look exactly like the demands the US made before hostilities started. To stop the war, Trump told reporters, the US wants all of Iran's "nuclear dust," an end to all enrichment activities, and limits on ballistic missiles. Trump also demands "peace in the Middle East," a thinly veiled reference to Iran's support of terror networks Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis:
President Trump outlines U.S. demands for Iran:https://t.co/P9g4tYgfft nuclear bomb, no nuclear weapon, “not even close to it”
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 23, 2026
2.“Low key” on missiles
3.Peace in the Middle East
4.“We want the nuclear dust”https://t.co/UnmIJjvfyR enrichment
6.“We want the enriched uranium”… pic.twitter.com/wTSg8oht1b
“If this happens, it’s a great start for Iran to build itself back. And it’s everything that we want.”
“And it’s also great for Israel and it’s great for the other Middle Eastern countries, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, all of them, Kuwait and Bahrain in particular. So it’s great for all of them.”
True enough. That was equally true before the war started. And yet Iran didn't take that deal, and we all know why. Has anything changed?
A few things have, clearly. Iran has lost its navy, most of its missile production, and their nuclear development sites have been hit repeatedly in this war as well as last June. Their deterrents, intended to turn the Gulf states against the US, have only served to isolate the regime further. The Saudis are still considering whether to enter the war as an ally to the US and Israel, and might choose to do so by invading Yemen to put an end to the Houthis, who are threatening oil exports in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
Perhaps most significantly, Iran may no longer be a theocracy, and that may have split the regime. The IRGC has tried using Nepo Babytollah Mojtaba Khamenei as their cardboard cutout of a Supreme Leader, but no one has proven that Khamenei is even alive since the war started. The Iranian regime may be in the middle of a power struggle between the IRGC – literally Iran's military-industrial complex – and the mullah-supported civil government, or at least parts of it.
That may explain who's talking with interlocutors about a potential deal:
Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf is leading the talks with the United States, a source told The Jerusalem Post.
Hmmmm. Both the US and Israelis have taken care to avoid hitting political leadership in Iran over the last three-plus weeks. Israel has taken every IRGC-affiliated leader it can find off the table, including hard-liner security chief Ali Larijani and intel chief Esmail Khatib. Despite their high public profiles in this conflict, Israel and the US have left Masoud Pezeshkian and Ghalibaf alone. That has been a curious but understandable choice, likely from consultations with our allies to leave enough of the civil government in place to conduct back-channel negotiations for a capitulation.
That's exactly what this demand set requires, too: a capitulation. The regime would have to agree to Trump's pre-war terms in full to preserve what's left of their industrial base. The clock is ticking, too, as two Marine Expeditionary Units converge on the Strait of Hormuz, with Kharg Island their most obvious target. If Iran doesn't capitulate soon, the regime will likely lose its ability to export oil at all, and with it a full-scale economic collapse will shortly ensue. Time is a luxury for Trump, but for Iran's regime, it is a rapidly depleting and critical resource, disappearing faster than its missiles and drones.
Even if Ghalibaf and Pezeshkian make an agreement, though, can they deliver on it? That would require the people to conduct a coup against the IRGC's military junta. The US and Israel are demolishing the infrastructure that keeps that junta in place, but the IRGC has had decades to build its internal-terror structures. A few weeks of demolition may not be enough. If there is a power struggle now between the government and the IRGC, which side will the regular army choose, and when? What side will the municipal police departments take, and when?
Trump may want to test all of these hypotheses with a brief pause on his ultimatum. Five days won't cost much to the effort, especially since other operations continue as normal; only the strikes on Iran's electricity have been paused. If this pays off, it might be the cleanest way to get the uranium out of Iran, not to mention the most efficient path to regime change in the form of an IRGC collapse. And if not, Trump can just return to his normally scheduled programming.
Update: The talks with the civil government may explain Trump's curious construct in his Truth Social post this morning about dealing with "the country of Iran." Others noticed that phrase and wondered what it meant. It's something to keep in mind.
Update: State media agency Fars denies all of this, but there's something to keep in mind:
Fars News Agency quotes an Iranian source: “There are no direct or indirect negotiations with Trump. He backed down after hearing our threats.”
— Amit Segal (@AmitSegal) March 23, 2026
Keep in mind that the IRGC controls Fars, as well as most other state media. If we're looking to bypass the IRGC, we won't be talking with them anyway.
Editor's Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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