Iran's leadership keeps demanding war reparations as a condition of talks with the US and Israel. Just think of all the money we could raise for that by seizing Kharg Island!
Yes, that may be a little flippant in this circumstance. The strategic and tactical value of Kharg Island is no joke to either the Iranians or the global oil markets, however. Without Kharg, Iran has no means to export its oil, even on the black market. And that core strategic consideration might allow Donald Trump to force other nations into escort duty in the Strait of Hormuz.
Axios' Barak Ravd reports that Trump is considering both options at the moment:
President Trump is working to assemble a coalition of countries to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and hopes to announce it later this week, four sources tell Axios.
- Trump is also weighing a seizure of Iran's critical oil depot on Kharg Island — a move that would require U.S. boots on the ground — if tankers remain bottled up in the Persian Gulf, U.S. officials say.
Why it matters: Oil and gas prices are rising as Iran's blockade of the Gulf's narrow strait drags on, choking off a significant share of the world's crude supply.
- Iran is blocking Gulf countries from exporting their oil while allowing tankers picking up Iranian crude to pass freely — keeping its own oil flowing to China and other countries.
- As long as the blockade holds and Gulf oil is restricted, Trump could not end the war even if he wanted to, a source with knowledge of the situation said.
That much is now obvious. Not that the US or Israel is inclined to stop at the moment, though; Israel's war cabinet just approved at least three more weeks of offensive operations against Iran after the two weeks already in the books. Israel is about to launch a second front in Lebanon to scour Hezbollah from the sub-Litani region too, in an attempt to finally put an end to 40-plus years of warfare on its northern border. (We will have more on that separately.) Both Israel and the US know that the locus of the war is in Tehran rather than Beirut, and they want to spend at least a few more weeks demolishing the regime's infrastructure before ending the war.
However, to get Iran to end its attacks on shipping through the Strait, we have to change the calculus. They will not stop those attacks just because we stop bombing Iran; the genie is out of the bottle, so to speak, and the Strait of Hormuz is the only deterrent Iran has left. If we begin escorts through the narrow passage with NATO allies as escorts, Iran risks escalating an already catastrophic war and might back down.
However, if we seize Kharg Island, we might face diplomatic and economic blowback from India and China, especially the latter, as it would instantly end China's access to cheap oil and force Beijing to buy oil at full-market prices. That would raise the price of oil, too, at least in the short term. Threatening to seize Kharg Island might be leverage for Trump to get oil-importing partners for naval escorts, as a means to promise a return to normalcy at some point.
Would that work? Perhaps; the Wall Street Journal reports that the EU is at least talking about it:
The U.K. and the European Union said they were discussing options for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway that Iran has effectively closed. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the U.K. was looking at deploying robot mine hunters.
The comments come after President Trump said he and his team had asked seven countries to help police the strait. Trump said that for any that decline, “We will remember.” ...
Trump warned of a “very bad” future for NATO if U.S. allies don’t assist in opening the Strait of Hormuz, the Financial Times reported. In the interview, the president said he could delay his trip to Beijing later this month, as he also presses China to help address oil disruptions.
This may not matter much in the end. Trump is clearly getting assets in place to seize Kharg Island, with the USS Tripoli on its way with a full Marine Expeditionary Unit and supporting materiel. The Iranians have no effective way to defend or relieve the island, not with the US and Israel in full control of the air and the Iranian navy destroyed. Trump could just be forcing the EU to demonstrate its unwillingness to police global trade so that taking Kharg Island would be the only option Trump has to leverage against Iran.
Kharg Island is the prize in this war. Its seizure would be a kill shot to the IRGC and the regime, halting all hard-currency income and any ability to pay what's left of the regime's forces. The US can hold Kharg indefinitely, perhaps for decades, starving the Iranian regime for as long as it lasts. The war had to take precedence over diplomatic niceties, at least if Trump is serious about fighting to win it. Will it disrupt oil markets? Definitely in the short run, but the alternative is to leave the current regime in Iran with the ability to disrupt oil markets for the long term. This situation shows just how untenable that would be, and what a danger this regime poses to global commerce and the security of its neighbors.
Time to take the regime off the playing board for good.
Editor's Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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