Yesterday, House Speaker Mike Johnson declared that no vote would take place on an extension of ObamaCare subsidies that will expire within days. Johnson ended up with egg on his face, as at least four members of his House Republican caucus signed a discharge petition to force the vote over his objection:
🚨🚨 BREAKING NEWS
— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) December 17, 2025
JEFFRIES OBAMACARE DISCHARGE PETITION HAS REACHED 218
PENNSYLVANIA REP. RYAN MACKENZIE has signed the discharge petition.
THE HOUSE will now vote on a clean, three-year extension of the Obamacare premium subsidies.
How did this happen? Johnson had tried bargaining for a reconciliation package next year to re-craft the pandemic-related "emergency" subsidies. That infuriated some Republican moderates, who saw the expiration as a political threat to themselves in the midterms. Mike Lawler (R-NY) erupted in anger yesterday:
“It’s idiotic and it’s political malpractice,” Lawler said. “The fact is that we have a time-sensitive issue, which is the expiration of these enhanced premium tax credits that were put in place during COVID.”
Lawler did acknowledge the failures of the Affordable Care Act, most notably how it has not reduced healthcare expenses in the country. Yet, he admitted that not voting to extend the subsidies was unwise and the motivating factor for his efforts in doing so, highlighting the efforts of the bipartisan committee he worked with to try to get a House vote on the issue.
“We can all agree that Obamacare has failed to reduce healthcare costs across this country. In fact, since Obamacare took effect, healthcare premiums have risen 96%, at minimum,” Lawler said. “So, we need to address the longer-term issue of healthcare costs in this country. But to allow these subsidies to expire without even having a vote, to me is foolish, and it’s why I am fighting for an up or down vote.”
Earleir today, Johnson tried to appeal for unity and a longer-term approach. He appeared on CNBC's Squawk Box to ask his caucus to reject the discharge petition offered by Hakeem Jeffries for a three-year extension of the status quo:
House Speaker [Mike Johnson] on Wednesday urged his fellow Republicans not to join Democrats in a last-ditch effort to extend key Affordable Care Act tax credits that are due to expire at the end of the year.
Johnson told CNBC's "Squawk Box" that "doing an end-run around the majority party, the Speaker or the regular process is not the best way to make law." ...
Johnson said GOP caucus members could tackle health insurance costs in early 2026.
"We're looking at another reconciliation package for example, in the first quarter of next year, which will have a number of other revisions and reforms to the system, and all of it is geared, again, for reducing premiums, increasing access to care and quality of care," Johnson said.
It's an understandable position, but it ignores the financial and political impact of the expiration of those subsidies. That will mainly impact middle-class households, as the subsidies in question mainly apply to higher income brackets, but it will still impact people as the midterm season opens. Johnson wanted to wait to pass another budget resolution first, which would enable a new reconcilation package, which Republicans could use for reforming or replacing ObamaCare.
That strategy has a few major flaws, however. First, allowing the subsidies to expire will still create political damage that may not be recoverable. Second, the families impacted will not likely recover the money they lose. Third, there's no guarantee that Republicans will succeed in reforming ObamaCare even with a reconciliation package. The GOP infamously flopped in 2017 when they had to put together a poorly conceived plan and it failed to pass the Senate even with majority control. Johnson and John Thune don't even have a plan yet, let alone one that could unite both Republican caucuses in Congress.
Four House Republicans defied Johnson after this plea on CNBC:
The four Republicans who signed on Wednesday morning and pushed it to 218 were Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., Rob Bresnahan, R-Pa., and Ryan Mackenzie, R-Pa.
All four of them represent competitive districts that could make or break the GOP’s narrow House majority. Democrats have been slamming each of them as complicit in the impending lapse of the funding, which first passed in 2021 under President Joe Biden in a bid to cap premiums for “benchmark” plans at 8.5% of income. ...
“House leadership then decided to reject every single one of these amendments,” Fitzpatrick said. “As I’ve stated many times before, the only policy that is worse than a clean three-year extension without any reforms, is a policy of complete expiration without any bridge. Unfortunately, it is House leadership themselves that have forced this outcome.”
Frankly, this could end up being a tempest in a teapot – if Johnson can deliver on a reconciliation-driven reform plan. In fact, it might make more sense to let this extension go through, and then moot it in a comprehensive reconciliation process next year at a better, more deliberative pace. That way Republicans can avoid the immediate political damage of the expiration of these subsidies, but the issue could largely vanish if the GOP can finally deal with the disaster of ObamaCare after fifteen years of promises.
The ball is in Johnson's court, as well as Thune's and Donald Trump's. This time, though, the GOP had better have its act together before putting together a reconciliation-based replacement for the reconciliation-based ObamaCare system.
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