Last Friday, it looked like Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko had offered Nicolas Maduro a sotto voce hint straight out of The Amityville Horror – "Get out." Yesterday, the Belarus dictator dispensed with what little subtlety he had previously employed.
Lukashenko had previously told the Venezuelan ambassador that the time had come for Maduro to pay a state visit to Minsk. Putin's toady knew what it would mean if Maduro left the country at this moment of crisis with the US, and so did Maduro, who apparently didn't take the hint. So last night, Lukashenko spelled it out for him:
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said in an interview with U.S. media organization Newsmax on Monday that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was welcome to come to Belarus should he leave office, but that no such discussions had been held with Maduro. ...
In his interview with Newsmax, Lukashenko said Belarus and Venezuela had longstanding relations and that Maduro was welcome to come to Minsk if he so wished.
"Maduro was never an enemy or an adversary for us. If he wanted to come to Belarus, the doors for him are open," Lukashenko said in excerpts of the interview posted on the Pul Pervogo Telegram channel linked to the president's administration.
"But let me tell you honestly, this has never been discussed. Maduro is not the sort of person who leaves or flees. He is one tough guy."
Well ... it's being discussed now, right? Lukashenko has made it a point of discussion, and even more, an obviously public point of discussion. He's doing everything now, short of semaphore flags and skywriting, to get Maduro to leave Venezuela.
That raises a question, too. Why is Lukashenko so interested in Maduro, of all people? He has a war on his own border, a restive population, and is about to age out of his career, one way or the other. As it turns out, though, the Belarusian dictator has cut a few deals himself with the US lately:
The United States says it is lifting sanctions on Belarusian potash in the latest sign of a thaw between Washington and the isolated autocracy.
John Coale, the U.S. special envoy for Belarus, made the announcement after meeting the country’s authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko in the Belarusian capital of Minsk on Friday and Saturday.
The US reduced sanctions in September as well, in exchange for the release of political prisoners in Belarus. This latest deal included more such releases, but also included pressure on Lukashenko and Putin to push Maduro out:
The latest round discussions also touched on Venezuela, as well as Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, Belta said.
Coale told reporters that Lukashenko had given “good advice” on how to address the conflict, saying that Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin were “longtime friends” with “the necessary level of relationship to discuss such issues.”
"Naturally, President Putin may accept some advice and not others,” Coale said.
Lukashenko's "invitations" began to pop up at about the same time. Coincidence? I've heard they exist, but have yet to see them in diplomatic relations.
Speaking of barely credible coincidences, Axios' Marc Caputo reports that the administration has decided to accelerate tanker seizures in the near future. The White House calls the potential haul "quite a buffet," and they plan to send the bill for the meal to Maduro, one way or the other:
The U.S. is preparing to seize more sanctioned oil-filled tankers off Venezuela as the Trump administration opens a new phase of its pressure campaign on Nicolas Maduro's regime, officials tell Axios. ...
As many as 18 sanctioned oil-laden ships are in Venezuela's waters now. Eight are classified as "Very Large Cargo Container ships" like Skipper, which can carry nearly 2 million barrels of Venezuelan crude, according to Samir Madani, co-founder of the firm Tanker Trackers that monitors global shipping.
Meanwhile, the administration is moving forward with sanctioning more vessels operating in Venezuela by adding them to the U.S. Treasury Department's "Specially Designated Nationals" list, which the vessel Skipper was on.
- "It's quite a buffet for the U.S. to choose from," Madani said. ...
- "The reality is we can SDN any ship carrying Venezuelan oil and then seize it pretty quickly," said an administration adviser, noting that the country's oil agency has been sanctioned by the U.S. since 2019.
The White House did take the precaution of getting a warrant for the seizure of the first ship, based on those sanctions, which had largely been unenforced for the past six years. It won't take much to get more warrants for these other seizures, but at the moment, the US Navy is getting the desired effect on the cheap. Those tankers aren't moving at all, which means they aren't generating any revenue for Maduro – precisely the outcome that seizures of the tankers would produce. Trump has effectively shut down Maduro's income stream, and with it, his ability to protect his regime and himself personally.
With a skeptical eye toward the idea of coincidences, here's what likely happened last week in Minsk. Coale likely told Lukashenko to tell Putin that the US had run out of patience with Maduro's regime and would force him out, one way or the other. Ship seizures and escalation on land targets likely came up, with the warning that time was running out for Putin's client in Caracas to collect his winnings and find a safe destination for a very cold retirement. Putin must have decided not to push it and told Lukashenko to get Maduro to leave, in exchange for US concessions on sanctions.
Or maybe this is all just a coincidence. Perhaps December is a great time for the leader of a Caribbean nation to have an extended vacation in Minsk, and all of this is just friendly chatter between dictators. Somehow, though, it looks more like a final warning to Maduro before the Qaddafi option gets deployed, from within or without.
The latest episode of The Ed Morrissey Show podcast is now up! Today's show features:
- Andrew Malcolm and I meet up after an avalanche of horrible news over the weekend.
- We discuss the terror attack in Australia that killed 15 people celebrating Hanukkah on the beach, a mass shooting at Brown University, and the heartbreaking murders of Rob Reiner and his wife.
- Has Australia missed the real lessons of the terror attack, or will its government deflect to pursue the progressive hobby horse agenda?
- Plus, we discuss the fragile grasp on humanity evident in the aftermath of the Charlie Kirk assassination, even on certain fringe segments of the Right.
The Ed Morrissey Show is now a fully downloadable and streamable show at Spotify, Apple Podcasts, the TEMS Podcast YouTube channel, and on Rumble and our own in-house portal at the #TEMS page!
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